Monsoon tracker: IMD warns of heavy rain, thunderstorms and heat wave in several states; checklist | Today’s news

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Southwest Monsoon is yet to reach Kerala by the expected onset date of May 26. However, the monsoon continued to advance into other parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep region and parts of the Bay of Bengal, PTI reported.

Earlier, the IMD had predicted the arrival of monsoon over Kerala on May 26 with a possible deviation of four days.

The monsoon usually sets over Kerala around June 1, marking the beginning of the monsoon season (June to September) in the country. Last year, the onset of monsoon occurred on May 24, according to the ministry.

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In a statement, the IMD said, “Conditions are favorable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon over some other parts of Southwest and Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep region, Southwest, Central and West Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of Southeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of Northeast Bay of Bengal during the next 2-3 days.”

IMD rain and heat forecast across India

Northeast India

In Northeast India, scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thundershowers, lightning and gusty winds of 40-50 kmph is expected over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on May 28. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Arunachal Pradesh on June 1 and 2, while Assam and Meghalaya may experience heavy rainfall on May 28 and again on June 2. Similar heavy rains are expected over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on May 28 and also on May 30 and June 2.

Southern part of India

Isolated to scattered light to moderate showers with thundershowers, lightning and gusty winds of 40-50 km/h over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and Interior Karnataka from 28 May to 2 June. Similar weather activity is also expected over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana and Interior Karnataka during 28-31. May.

Thunderstorms with winds of 50-60 km/h, gusting up to 70 km/h, are likely on the 28th-29th. on May over North Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema and on May 28 over South Interior Karnataka.

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Besides, isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during 28-29. May; over Kerala and Mahé on 1–2 June; over Lakshadweep on June 1 and 2; and across Coastal Karnataka, Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Telangana.

East India

Fairly widespread to widespread moderate to moderate rainfall accompanied by thundershowers, lightning and gusty winds of 40-50 km/h is likely over East India from May 28 to June 2, over Andaman and Nicobar Islands on 28-29. May over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim and from May 28 to May 31 in West Bengal.

Isolated to scattered rainfall along with similar thunderstorm activity and gusty winds are also expected over Bihar and Odisha during 28-31. of May, while Jharkhand is likely to experience these conditions from May 28 to June 1.

Severe thunderstorms with winds of 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph are expected over Gangetic West Bengal on 28 May and Bihar on 28 and 29 May. Additionally, squalls of 50-60 kmph, gusting up to 70 kmph, are likely over Gangetic West Bengal during 28-29. May and over Jharkhand and Odisha from May 28 to 30.

Isolated heavy rainfall is also expected over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during 29-31. May, in sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on May 28, in Gangetic West Bengal on May 28, in Bihar during May 28-29. May and in Odisha on May 29 and 30.

Monsoon

India receives more than 70 percent of its annual rainfall during the monsoon months, making the season critical for agriculture, drinking water supply, hydropower generation, and groundwater recharge.

In April, the ministry said southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country was expected to be below normal this year.

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India is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall during the season – the long-term average (1971–2020) of seasonal rainfall over India is 87 cm.

Below normal seasonal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except some areas over northeast, northwest and southern peninsular India where normal to above normal rainfall may occur.

Child

One reason for the below-normal rainfall could be the emergence of El Niño conditions, which cause less rainfall in the country.

In its May 1 monthly forecast, the department said neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific are evolving toward El Niño conditions. El Niño conditions last developed in 2023. Since 2000, these conditions have occurred in 2002, 2009, and 2015.

The Center is fully prepared to mitigate any adverse impact of the El Nino phenomenon on this year’s kharif crop, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Thursday as he called for integrated farming and greater self-sufficiency in pulses and oilseeds, PTI reported.

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“Rather than worrying, preparation is required. Contingency plans will be made for the affected areas and crop changes will be considered whenever necessary,” Chouhan told reporters on the sidelines of the two-day National Kharif conference.

The ministry is in the process of identifying areas for alternative crops and ensuring availability of seeds in case of El Nino impact, he told PTI.

The IMD, in its first-stage forecast on April 13, projected a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, with rainfall likely to be 92 percent of the long-term average.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May-July, while the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in its ENSO update on May 11 said El Nino conditions are likely to emerge during May-June and persist till the end of the year, PTI reported.

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El Nino, characterized by an unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with drier and warmer conditions in India.

Kharif (summer) sowing has just started in some parts of India but is still in very early stages. Farmers have started preparing fields for early sowing (especially of short-duration crops such as pulses, coarse grains and some cotton) in areas hit by pre-monsoon rains.

Normal Kharif sowing begins in June and peaks in June-July with the arrival and advance of the southwest monsoon.

(With input from agencies)