IMD predicts sub-normal rainfall for India in July | Today’s news
According to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest monthly outlook, India is likely to see less than normal rainfall in July at less than 94% of the Long Term Average (LPA).
The forecast follows India’s driest June in over a decade and the fifth driest since records began in 1901, with southwest monsoon rainfall 39.8% below LPA. The country received 99.5 mm of rainfall during the month compared to the normal 165.3 mm.
The IMD on 29 May revised its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of LPA, from the earlier estimate of 92%, due to El Niño conditions. The LPA for the season June-September, based on the climatological record from 1971-2020, is 87 cm. The last time the country experienced a sub-normal monsoon was in 2023, when rainfall reached 95% of the LPA.
The latest forecast suggests rainfall will remain below normal over most of the country. However, normal to above normal rainfall is expected over some parts of North West and North East India, East and Central India and East Peninsular region.
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Summer hotter than usual
The Meteorological Department has also predicted warmer than normal conditions over much of the country during July. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal over most parts of the country, barring a few isolated pockets of west and central India where day temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal.
Weak El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts by the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate models indicate that these conditions are likely to intensify further during the season, the IMD said.
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“Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently observed over the Indian Ocean. The model forecast suggests that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist through the season,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD.
The combination of below-normal precipitation and higher temperatures could increase heat stress in several regions and affect soil moisture, especially in rain-fed agricultural areas, experts said.
“The forecast lack of rainfall is likely to increase the cost of cultivation for farmers as they may have to rely more on irrigation. It could also prompt a shift to less demanding or short-lived crops to reduce weather-related risks during the kharif season,” said Sudhir Panwar, an agriculture expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.
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Impact on growth
The country remains heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon, which accounts for more than 70% of its annual rainfall. Since only about 55% of the country’s net crop area is irrigated, the rest depends on rainfall.
A good monsoon supports the agricultural economy and lifts rural demand, benefiting sectors such as two-wheelers, tractors and consumer packaged goods, where volumes typically grow by 10-12% in good years, according to industry estimates. Conversely, light rains can have a negative impact on consumption in rural areas.
“Below-normal rainfall could delay kharif sowing and affect crop yields, which could result in lower production. A weaker harvest, in turn, could dampen rural demand, especially for FMCG and durable goods,” said Neeraj Hatekar, an economist and former professor at the University of Mumbai.
In its June 5 monetary policy statement, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projected consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5.1% for 2026-27, warning that the outlook is subject to upside risks from global supply chain disruptions and uncertainty over the spatial and temporal distribution of the monsoon.
However, adequate food supplies and satisfactory reservoir levels were reported to provide some comfort.
The central bank also projected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.6% for FY27, warning that weather-related shocks could affect agricultural activity, rural demand and inflation.
He added that prolonged global supply chain disruptions and increased volatility in financial markets remain key risks to the growth outlook.
Meanwhile, India’s retail inflation accelerated to 3.93% in May from 3.48% in April, according to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation on June 12. Food inflation, a key component of the consumer price index, rose to 4.78% from 4.20% in April, while housing inflation eased marginally to 2.12% from 2.15%.
