Efforts to end the US-Iran conflict appeared to be losing steam on Friday as the two sides exchanged fire in the Persian Gulf, while a US intelligence assessment reportedly concluded that Tehran could withstand a naval blockade for several months, according to Reuters.
A CIA assessment suggested Iran would not suffer severe economic pressure from the US blockade of Iranian ports for about four more months, Reuters reported, citing a US official familiar with the matter, suggesting US influence over Tehran remains limited as both sides seek to end a conflict that has been unpopular with US voters.
The rating was first reported by The Washington Post.
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A CIA assessment reportedly concluded that Iran could withstand a US naval blockade for about four more months without suffering severe economic pressure.
Iran has introduced a new regulatory system that requires merchant ships to provide detailed information through a 40-question declaration and secure a transit permit before passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. military shot and destroyed two Iranian oil tankers that were attempting to enter an Iranian port in violation of the U.S. blockade.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy transit route through which vessels transporting almost a fifth of the world’s oil pass daily.
The US has tightened sanctions on individuals and companies for aiding Iran’s military in providing weapons and raw materials for its drones in a bid to put pressure on Tehran’s military-industrial base.
A senior intelligence official called the “claims” of the CIA analysis “false” and said the blockade was “causing real, compounded harm — disrupting trade, crushing incomes and accelerating systemic economic collapse.”
Read also | A peace deal between the US and Iran soon? Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed says ‘high probability’
Recent days have seen the most intense clashes in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire came into effect a month ago, with the United Arab Emirates again under attack on Friday.
At the same time, Washington is awaiting Tehran’s response to a US proposal to formally end the war before moving on to negotiations on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.
“We should know something today,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Rome yesterday. “We are waiting for a response from them.
A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said Tehran was still considering its response, and none had been reported by mid-afternoon in Washington, just before midnight in Tehran, Reuters reported.
Sporadic clashes in the Strait of Hormuz
Meanwhile, intermittent clashes between Iranian forces and US naval vessels were reported in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency. Later, Tasnim News Agency quoted an Iranian military source as saying that the situation had eased, although it warned that further confrontations could still occur.
The U.S. military said it targeted two Iran-linked vessels trying to enter an Iranian port, with a U.S. fighter jet hitting their smokestacks and forcing the ships to turn back.
Read also | Oil prices rise after the US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has largely restricted non-Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the conflict following joint US-Israeli airstrikes over Iran on 28 February. The United States also imposed a blockade on Iranian vessels last month.
Oil prices moved higher amid escalating tensions, with Brent crude futures trading above $101 a barrel, although prices remained more than 6% lower for the week.
Trump said Thursday that the truce was still in place despite flare-ups in the strait, which before the war carried one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies.
The confrontation spread beyond the waterway. The United Arab Emirates said its air defenses fired two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran on Friday, injuring three people with moderate injuries.
During the war, Iran repeatedly targeted the UAE and other Gulf states that host US military bases. In what the UAE called a “major escalation”, Iran stepped up attacks this week in response to Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom” to escort ships in the strait, which it suspended after 48 hours.
Iran accuses the US of violating the ceasefire
Iran has accused the US of violating a ceasefire that has largely been in place since it was announced on April 7, but has come under pressure this week.
“Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday. Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that one crew member was killed, 10 wounded and four missing after a US Navy attack on an Iranian commercial ship late Thursday.
Read also | Abbas Araghchi to be removed as FM Iran? Iran’s president seeks his ouster: Report
After meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni, Rubio asked why Italy and other allies were not supporting Washington’s efforts to reopen the strait.
“You’re going to normalize a country that claims to control an international waterway? Because if you normalize it, you’ve set a precedent that’s going to be repeated in a dozen other places,” he said.
The US imposes sanctions
At the same time, Washington has increased sanctions as part of its strategy to increase pressure on Iran.
The US Treasury Department on Friday announced sanctions against 10 individuals and companies, including several in China and Hong Kong, for aiding the Iranian military’s efforts to secure weapons and raw materials used to make Tehran’s Shahed drones.
Read also | How many Shahed drones does Iran have and why are they key? Explained
The finance ministry said in a statement that it remains ready to take economic action against Iran’s military-industrial base to prevent Tehran from restoring its production capacity and projecting power abroad.
It also said it was ready to crack down on any foreign company supporting illicit Iranian trade and could impose secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions, including those linked to China’s independent “teapot” oil refineries, Reuters reported.
Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure.
The announcement came days before Trump plans to travel to China for a meeting with President Xi Jinping.
(With inputs from Reuters)
