El Nino could become one of the strongest in history and hit India, Australia, the US, warns the meteorological agency | Today’s news
The weather-battered El Niño that emerged in the Pacific last month continues to build and is likely to be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, the US Climate Prediction Center said.
Sea surface temperatures of 1°C (1.8°F) or more above normal, the hallmark of the phenomenon, have spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and there is an 81% chance it will become a very strong El Niño and rank among “the largest events in the historical record going back to 1950,” the agency said in its monthly forecast. Some parts of the eastern Pacific reached 2.7°C above normal last week.
Meteorologists expect El Niño to last until 2027
“Even the strongest El Niño events do not produce the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can tilt the odds more significantly in favor of expected outcomes,” the Climate Prediction Center said. El Niño will “strengthen by the end of the year, with a 97% chance of lasting until early spring 2027”.
Global weather patterns are likely to be disrupted
El Niño is closely watched by traders, markets and governments because it offers a seasonal look at weather extremes that can trigger flooding, drought, cooling and change hurricane and typhoon activity in the Atlantic and Pacific. El Niño strengthens wind shear in the Caribbean and disrupts the development of tropical storms and hurricanes during the six-month season that began June 1.
Elsewhere, it typically brings colder and wetter winters to the southern US, while increasing the risk of drought and bushfires in Australia.
El Niño has already been blamed for depleting reservoirs in India and putting pressure on the grid during peak summer demand. Hydro generation fell nearly 21% from a year earlier, the steepest decline since February 2024, data from India’s power ministry showed. Output from dams fell nearly 7% in the quarter to June, while coal, nuclear and renewable power plants generated more to meet record demand driven by extreme heat.
AccuWeather Inc. lowered its forecast for named storms across the Atlantic on Tuesday to 8 to 14, from 11 to 16 as the commercial forecaster predicted in March, according to the statement. The 30-year average across the Atlantic is for 14 storms to be named, which is what happens when they reach tropical storm strength.
There is only a 3% chance that the Pacific will return to normal in early spring, and no chance that La Niña will occur as the ocean cools.
