Israel Election 2026: Can Netanyahu Lose Polls But Hold On To Power? How coalition arithmetic could decide the fate of Bibi | Today’s news
Israel heads to a crucial general election on October 27, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a formidable challenge from an opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.
Although Netanyahu’s political future hangs in the balance, the election may not be decided by the popular vote alone.
Israel’s coalition-based parliamentary system means that even a party that finishes behind its rivals could still be in a position to form a government.
Quick answers to key questions
•5 QUESTIONS
Yes. Israel’s prime minister is determined by building a coalition, not just by which party wins the most seats. Netanyahu could remain in power if Likud and its allies secure enough support to form a governing coalition.
A coalition generally needs at least 61 of the 120 Knesset seats to win a majority. Parties can negotiate with potential partners after the election to reach this number.
Small parties can determine whether any bloc achieves the 61-member majority needed to govern. To enter the Knesset, a party must win at least 3.25% of the valid votes – that is, roughly four mandates.
The parties can continue negotiations and another candidate could get the chance to form a government. If no leader secures enough support, the country could hold another election while the current cabinet remains a caretaker government.
Perhaps, but winning the largest number of seats would not automatically make Eisenkot prime minister. The opposition would have to agree on a coalition and secure sufficient support from the Knesset in order to govern.
The outcome could affect Israel’s approach to the Gaza war and wider regional conflicts, its relations with the United States and Europe, and the country’s domestic political trajectory.
In the case of India, this involves cooperation in defence, trade, energy security and New Delhi’s wider diplomatic interests in West Asia.
As Israelis voted on Tuesday, Netanyahu’s party is locked in a tight battle with Eisenkot’s opposition alliance.
The first election since the October 7 attacks
These are Israel’s first national elections since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks that killed 1,195 people and took 251 hostages in Gaza.
The attack triggered a prolonged military campaign and years of conflict on multiple fronts.
The attacks exposed major intelligence and security failures, prompting widespread criticism of Netanyahu and his government’s preparedness.
Many of his detractors accuse him of repeatedly shirking responsibility for the failures that preceded the raid and the security establishment’s response.
The events of October 7 and their aftermath left Israeli society with deep sadness, uncertainty and political division.
Can Netanyahu lose votes but stay in power?
Israel’s electoral system makes the final outcome more complicated than a straight contest between the two leading political camps. Voters elect parties to the 120-member Knesset, or parliament, by proportional representation. No single party has traditionally secured enough seats to govern alone, so coalition talks have become central to the formation of any government.
The key question is whether Netanyahu’s Likud party and its potential right-wing and religious allies can together win a majority of at least 61 seats. Even if Likud finishes behind its main rival in terms of seats, Netanyahu could still have a path to power if his allies secure enough seats to form a governing coalition.
Conversely, the opposition party or alliance that wins the largest number of seats may still have difficulty forming a government if its partners cannot agree on a common program or achieve the required majority.
The 3.25% threshold could decide the outcome.
The fate of the smaller parties could be as important as the performance of the two main political camps. Under Israel’s electoral system, a party must receive at least 3.25% of the valid vote to enter the Knesset, a threshold that translates into roughly four seats.
Several smaller parties moving near the border could determine which bloc emerges with a stronger parliamentary position.
Read also | Who is Gadi Eisenkot? A man challenges Netanyahu’s power in Israel
Analysts expect the outcome to depend not only on whether voters switch sides, but also on which parties manage to enter parliament and how many seats they win.
Netanyahu’s political survival is also at stake
Netanyahu, widely known as Bibi, has dominated Israeli politics for decades, serving as prime minister for nearly 19 years with varying periods in office.
Security has long been central to his political appeal, and he has repeatedly survived electoral setbacks and political crises.
But the Oct. 7 fall represented one of the most serious challenges of his career.
Critics say his leadership has become inseparable from the failures that preceded the attacks and the long conflict that followed.
His supporters continue to view him as an experienced leader capable of navigating Israel through an unstable regional environment.
If the opposition wins more seats but fails to unite around a viable coalition, Netanyahu could still retain power.
If his traditional allies lose ground or fail to secure enough seats collectively, even his long experience in Israeli politics may not be enough to save his government.
For Israel, the election could determine the country’s direction after October 7. For Netanyahu, they could decide whether he remains at the center of national politics or loses power for good.
