Monsoon 2026: IMD revises rainfall forecast, predicts sub-normal rains in most parts of India | Today’s news
India is likely to receive 90% of its long-term average (LPA) rainfall during the southwest monsoon this year, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which released its second monsoon forecast on Friday.
The revised estimate represents a slight deterioration from the Meteorological Department’s first forecast issued on April 13, which projected monsoon rainfall at 92% of the long-term average.
The latest outlook suggests that while northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall during the season, several other regions of the country may see below normal rainfall.
Below normal rainfall is expected in most regions
IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra shared details of the forecast and outlined the expected rainfall in different parts of the country.
“Quantitatively, southwest monsoon rainfall over land is likely to be 90% of the long-term average… Below normal rainfall is most likely overland… Southwest monsoon, seasonal rainfall is most likely normal in Northeast India – about 94 to 106% of long-term average and below normal in the long peninsula, which is less than 4% in the central and southern peninsula. And northwest India, that’s roughly less than 92% of the long-term average, the monsoon core zone, consisting mostly of rain-flooded agricultural areas of the country, is likely to be below normal – less than 94% of the long-term average…” he said.
Read also | Delhi Weather Today: IMD predicts rain, thunderstorms and strong winds
According to the IMD, central India and the southern peninsular region are expected to see rainfall below 94% of the long-term average, while northwest India may see less than 92% of the average seasonal rainfall.
The forecast is particularly significant for the core monsoon zone of the country, which includes mainly rain-fed agricultural areas. The Met Office has indicated that rainfall in these areas is likely to remain below normal.
Northeast India may be an exception
While much of the country could witness below-average rainfall, the IMD expects northeast India to fare better during the monsoon season.
The weather department said seasonal rainfall in the region is most likely to remain within the normal range, estimated at around 94% to 106% of the long-term average.
The southwest monsoon is critical to India’s agricultural sector, water reservoirs and overall economy, with millions of people depending on the seasonal rainfall for agricultural activities.
Read also | Will it rain soon in Delhi-NCR? The IMD rain forecast comes as a relief amid the heat
Rain brings relief across Delhi-NCR
Meanwhile, parts of Delhi-NCR witnessed a welcome change in weather after rains and thunderstorms lashed the region on Thursday night, bringing relief from the intense heat.
After the showers, the IMD predicts continued wet and windy conditions in Delhi, Noida, Ghaziabad, Gurugram and Faridabad as pre-monsoon activity remains active over North India.
Several areas of the national capital were lashed by heavy rainfall on Thursday, while neighboring NCR cities experienced dust storms and strong winds. Weather conditions reduced visibility in some areas and affected traffic movement.
Read also | Monsoon tracker: IMD warns of heavy rain, thunderstorms and heat wave
What is the weather forecast in Delhi?
According to the IMD, the current rain and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue in Delhi-NCR till May 31.
- Weather forecast for Friday:
- Cloudy during the day
- Occasional rainfall in few parts of Delhi-NCR
- Thunderstorm activity during the day and evening
- Strong gusty winds in isolated places
- Cooler temperatures compared to conditions witnessed earlier this week
The weather system is expected to keep temperatures below those recorded during the recent heat wave, offering temporary relief to residents across the region.
With the monsoon season approaching and pre-monsoon activity intensifying in northern India, forecasters will continue to closely monitor rainfall patterns and regional weather developments in the coming weeks.
