Iran-US peace deal: Tehran or Trump – who gained more? “Iran may give up…” | Today’s news
The United States has “acceded” to Iran’s demands, an expert said in an analysis of the interim memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on Wednesday (June 18) between the US and Iran to end the war. But there’s more to it than meets the surface.
US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding vs “Final Deal”
The text of the memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran, published by several media outlets, suggests that while Iran has been given major economic relief, the end of the war depends on a “final deal” that both sides have pledged to reach within 60 days. That period is “extendable by mutual agreement,” the memorandum of understanding said.
Iran is widely seen as the main beneficiary of the US-Iran Interim Agreement, with the memorandum of understanding recognizing Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the US naval blockade, an end to sanctions, exemptions from Iranian oil exports and an end to war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
Quick answers to key questions
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The interim memorandum of understanding provides Iran with significant economic relief by lifting naval blockades, recognizing its control over the Strait of Hormuz and allowing the export of Iranian oil, with the aim of ending the war in Lebanon.
Experts believe Iran stands to benefit greatly from economic relief from sanctions, the ability to manage the Strait of Hormuz and potential access to billions in reconstruction funds depending on future negotiations.
The 60-day negotiating period will focus on key discussions on Iran’s uranium enrichment limits, verification mechanisms and broader terms for ensuring compliance with the final deal.
The MoU includes the expectation that Iran will curtail Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon and de-escalate, which are essential for Israel in the context of regional security.
While experts suggest Iran may concede some aspects, such as allowing monitoring by the IAEA, the extent of the concessions will depend on assurances that the US follows through on its promises to ease sanctions.
Read also | US Forces Lift Blockade on Iranian Ports, Say ‘Will Remain in General Area…’
While the memorandum of understanding outlines the contours of a final deal, ultimate success depends on negotiations over the next 60 days, when more important discussions will take place, including those on Iran’s nuclear program and procedures for releasing Iran’s frozen funds and assets.
So what does this memorandum really mean for the US, Iran and Israel, and who will gain more from this interim framework?
Credit: New York Times, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
What does this Iran-US memorandum of understanding really mean?
It is about two things – ending the war on all fronts (including Lebanon) and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, said Deepika Saraswat, associate fellow, West Asia Center, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses.
Negotiations on the nuclear agreement will take place in the next phase. The MOU is silent on Iran’s missile program and the extent of sanctions relief and financial support for Iran. It does, however, cover Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Many details need to be worked out.
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According to Ray Takeyh, Hasib J Sabbagh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Iran and the US have agreed to lift the blockade of maritime traffic through the Persian Gulf and then spend the next two months sorting out everything else. “It’s hard to see how this schedule is sustainable,” he said.
Takeyh notes that the nuclear issue is not part of the deal, but Israel’s behavior in Lebanon is. “…the lifting of all sanctions against Iran and the release of billions of dollars in frozen funds is a serious concern for Israelis,” said Elliott Abrams, another CFR senior official.
“This could mean that more resources are available to Iranian proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Shiite militias in Iraq, because the deal says nothing to prevent that. It is also silent on Iran’s missile program, which the recent war has shown to be extremely dangerous to Israel,” said Elliott Abrams.
Did Iran really win?
Experts believe that the US has not achieved “total surrender”, regime change or major concessions from Iran. Additionally, the MoU recognizes Iran’s right to manage the Strait of Hormuz and allows Iran to export oil.
Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, head of the South Asia practice at the Eurasia Group think tank, said the US had “conceded” to Iran’s demand.
However, Saraswat said the widespread perception that Iran will get everything is far from the truth.
She said: “After the war, Iran does not trust diplomacy with the US. Before Iran agrees to anything, it would like the US to also make a credible commitment and implement it, especially on easing sanctions and unfreezing Iranian aid.”
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She explained that Iran has survived two wars and the Islamic Republic now wants to be sure the other side is serious. “For Iran, it’s about locking in all the gains it made as a result of two wars. It makes it look like Iran has won,” said Deepika, who is also the author of “Between Survival and Status: Iran’s Counter-Hegemonic Geopolitics.”
It is worth noting that Iran is in a dire economic situation. So if they want to re-engage in diplomacy, they want to be sure of tangible and serious results.
The expert emphasized that Iran needs to be economically strong in order to do business and run the country – this is the biggest motivation for Iran to join the negotiations.
What will the US gain from the deal?
Trump wants to end the war and withdraw from it as quickly as possible, said Pramit Pal Chaudhuri. “The United States will gain nothing but Trump’s desire to get out of the war,” he said.
He notes that the US has been reluctant to use the full force of the US military to force Iran to back down. He said Trump entered the war believing he would win. However, the US president had no political strategy to win the war, he added.
Meanwhile, Saraswat said the US is no longer able to negotiate on the nuclear issue, which will be addressed in the second phase of peace talks.
Will Iran make concessions on its nuclear program?
Chaudhuri believes that in the final deal, Iran can concede very little — it can give up a token amount of uranium, allow monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and stick to its original promise not to build its ultimate nuclear weapon.
Saraswat said a more technical discussion on the nuclear program would take place in the next phase.
Read also | Trump’s Iran MOU vs Obama’s JCPOA: Key differences in the US-Iran deal
Iran needs incentives. Thus, the expert believes that Iran may make some concessions on the nuclear issue when it is assured that the US will fulfill its promises on sanctions and blockade.
Meanwhile, Elliott Abrams, another senior official at the CFR, said: “The deal will allow Iran to continue enriching uranium at a certain level, even if there is a temporary moratorium. Moreover, even if Iran has to give up or reduce the blending of 60 percent of its enriched uranium, it may be able to keep a very large amount of uranium enriched to lower levels.”
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is strictly peaceful. But the US and Israel have expressed concerns about advanced uranium enrichment.
Compromise? Iran to get $300 billion ‘fund’ only if…
Regarding Iran receiving at least $300 billion for reconstruction and economic development, US Vice President JD Vance said that the funds for Iran’s reconstruction will only be disbursed when Iran meets certain requirements.
Vance told CBS News on Monday that the $300 billion reconstruction fund is “the kind of thing that (Iran) could have access to, funded by the Gulf Coast Coalition, if it lives up to its end of the commitment.”
“…we are absolutely open to the Gulf Coast countries investing in the reconstruction of Iran, but only if Iran ends its nuclear program, ends its stockpile of enriched material, and is truly open to an inspection and enforcement regime that gives the American people confidence that they will never have a nuclear weapon,” Vance told CBS News.
Read also | Hormuz reopens after US-Iran peace deal: What it means for oil prices
“For Iran, it’s about locking in all the gains it made as a result of two wars. It makes it look like Iran won.” – Deepika Saraswat
“The Iranians will not get a dime unless they behave and change their behavior” and “they will never get a dime of American taxpayer money. Never. Period. Not even close,” Vance said in an interview with Fox News.
This begs the question: Did Iran really win the war, or did it make costly compromises to get economic aid to sustain itself? The fate of the Iran war will be clear once the next phase of Iran-US peace talks begins – when all eyes are on discussions regarding Iran’s nuclear program, the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of assets.
