(Adds Department of Labor comment in paragraph 3, adds photos of files)
Continued increase in claims between September and October household survey week
Initial claims do not change during this period
The mood of builders remains depressed in November
WASHINGTON, Nov 18 (Reuters) – The number of Americans claiming jobless benefits rose from mid-September to mid-October, government data showed on Tuesday, suggesting an increase in the jobless rate in October as an uncertain economic environment discourages hiring.
The Labor Department released only so-called continuing claims data for the weeks ending Oct. 11 and Oct. 18. The government would survey businesses and households in the week ending October 18 for the October employment report.
A Labor Department spokesman said “a technical problem caused the early release of partial data,” adding “this is being corrected and the full series will be available by close of business on November 20, 2025,” a Labor Department spokesman said in response to a Reuters query.
No official weekly claims data has been released since late September due to the recently ended 43-day government shutdown.
Separately, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said it would release the September producer price report next Tuesday and import and export price data on Dec. 3. The White House has warned that the unemployment rate for October is unlikely to be released after the longest shutdown in history prevented the collection of household data.
The number of people receiving jobless benefits after the first week of benefits, a proxy for hiring, rose by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.957 million in the week ended Oct. 18. Continuing claims shot up from the 1.916 million level in the week ending September 13.
A substantial increase in continuing claims between the September and October survey weeks would indicate a high unemployment rate in October and is consistent with lethargic hiring. A report from ADP showed that private employers cut an average of 2,500 jobs per week during the four weeks ending Jan.
The BLS will release its delayed September employment report on Thursday. The unemployment rate was near a four-year high of 4.3% in August. However, initial claims for benefits were unchanged between September and October, which some economists welcomed as a sign that the labor market was not deteriorating.
“That said, there is no confirmation in this report of widely circulated theories that layoffs increased during the government shutdown,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
“This should be reassuring to the markets and reduce expectations of a Fed rate cut in December.”
Federal Reserve officials have signaled reluctance to cut rates again next month.
BUILDERS’ SENTIMENT REMAINS MUFFLED
A slowdown in the labor market and accompanying worries about household finances are holding back the housing market, with homebuilder sentiment subdued in November for a 19th month, other data showed. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose one point this month to 38. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index unchanged at 37.
“Still relatively high mortgage interest rates, a weak labor market and elevated home prices suggest that a large increase in new home sales is unlikely in the near term,” said Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
“A meaningful turnaround in the housing market will likely have to wait until mid-2026, when we expect a further decline in mortgage rates coupled with stronger growth and a gradual improvement in the labor market.” The lack of affordable housing has become a political hot topic. President Donald Trump this month floated the idea of a 50-year mortgage to make housing affordable, an idea pushed by some of his supporters and housing experts who said it would lead to homeowners paying more in interest and take longer to build equity.
The National Association of Realtors this month estimated the median age of first-time buyers at 40. In the 1980s, the typical home buyer was in their early 20s, NAR said.
The survey’s measure of current sales conditions rose two points this month to 41, while the indicator of future sales fell three points to 51. The rate of prospective buyers rose one point to 26. The proportion of builders reporting price reductions rose to 41%, the most since May 2020. The average price reduction was unchanged at 6%, while the proportion taking advantage of incentives was steady at 65%.
“More builders are using incentives to close deals, including price reductions, but many potential buyers are still on the fence,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani and Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci and Nick Zieminski)
