(Bloomberg) — Thousands of protesters brought traffic to a standstill in the Brazilian city of Belém on Saturday, demanding that leaders act more quickly to combat global warming. As UN climate talks enter a critical second week, the next few days will decide whether that call is heeded.
The countries’ climate ministers arrived at the COP30 summit. They will need to bridge differences on key issues – how to accelerate emissions cuts, secure climate finance and facilitate trade – if they are to reach a deal by Friday. And it is unclear whether delegates can meet Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s demand for a plan to transition away from fossil fuels.
“I’ve had more conversations about the fossil fuel transition at this COP than any other, and now is the time for ministers to follow up on President Lula’s call,” Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s former special climate envoy, said in an interview. “If there’s enough political momentum behind it and enough countries, they’ll find a place to put it.”
The first week was characterized by a conciliatory mood and a quick agreement on the program. Brazilian negotiators have asked countries for input on what they want to get out of COP30 in the form of “love letters”, while the meetings have been described as “therapy sessions”. But maintaining that sense of calm will be difficult as the clock ticks down and ministers discuss the text.
Brazil, the host of COP30, will have to balance any plan to move away from oil, gas and coal with other major demands. A negotiating group of like-minded developing countries – which includes Saudi Arabia and India – is pushing developed countries to make more concrete pledges on climate finance, while China wants a discussion on unfair trade practices.
There is also “significant resistance” to the idea of a fossil fuel roadmap, COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago told reporters on Friday. Brazil will likely have to wrap various elements into a final decision, setting the stage for several late-night talks until the conference is scheduled to end at 6pm on Friday.
Negotiators with developed countries, who asked not to be identified, said they believe opposition to the roadmap may be too strong to be included in the final outcome, and that work will instead focus on building a coalition willing to push for a voluntary process.
“We are entering a political phase,” Liliam Chagas, Brazil’s chief negotiator, told a news conference. “There are many views on the issues at stake.”
There is little expectation that a fully implemented plan for fossil fuels will emerge by Friday. One potential solution could be a commitment to discuss this over the next year or so. Countries are due to conduct another round of stocktaking in 2028 to show how far they are from the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C and what needs to be done to close the gap.
In some parts of the UN-administered Blue Zone, where negotiations are underway, there is hope that an agreement on adaptation financing can be found. A 2021 deal to double to around $40 billion expires at the end of this year, and there is pressure to come up with a new, more ambitious target for the coming decade. This could potentially unlock more support for limiting fossil fuels.
President Lula is expected to come to the summit in the final days to try to break the deadlock, according to people familiar with the matter.
Although Brazil’s COP30 presidency has been cool to the idea of issuing a so-called umbrella decision, or a document that summarizes the results of the conference, there has already been talk of a possible mutirão decision — named after the Brazilian word for collective effort — to bring the various issues together.
A summary of the talks released by the presidency late Sunday showed the outcome would be to recognize the progress made in the decade since the Paris Agreement, move from negotiation to implementation and respond to the urgency of the climate crisis.
Among the many options for speeding up action, the text leaves open the possibility of a roadmap, although it does not explicitly link it to the phase-out of fossil fuels.
At the end of the first week, Corrêa do Lago emphasized that he was on the sides as they progressed. “Next week we will have to work in the spirit of mutirão and we are really serious,” he told reporters on Saturday.
But a positive approach can only go so far when countries disagree and time is short.
“It was helpful to provide this space for parties in a number of ways,” said David Waskow, director of the World Resources Institute’s International Climate Initiative. “But to continue in this vein – somehow floating in space for too long – would not, in my opinion, help to seal the deal at the end.”
–With assistance from Jennifer A. Dlouha, Daniel Carvalho, and Akshat Rathi.
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