1 War, 2 Disease Outbreaks, 1 Oil Crisis, 6 Countries Become Riskier and 3 See Lower Risks: Inside the Global Risk Map 2027 | Today’s news
The 2027 Global Risk Map from security services provider Global Guardian has identified increasing security threats in several countries, with Iran moving from high to extreme risk during the conflict with the US and Israel. The report also highlights worsening risks in the Persian Gulf, rising gang violence in Ecuador and deteriorating conditions in Cuba.
The map, last updated in September 2026, assesses safety based on factors including crime, conflict, healthcare, natural disasters, infrastructure, political stability, civil unrest and terrorism. This year’s edition introduces multiple risk ratings within a single country to reflect regional differences.
6 countries and regions move into higher risk categories
The report identifies the following changes in the risk assessment:
1. Iran: High to Extreme Risk – Ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, economic problems and an increased risk of arbitrary detention have raised the country’s risk rating.
2. Bahrain and Kuwait: Medium to High Risk – Their vulnerability to Iranian strikes and the concentration of US forces have raised security concerns.
3. Ecuador: Medium to High Risk — Escalating gang violence, disputes over cocaine trafficking, extortion and illegal mining have worsened security conditions. Gangs are increasingly using explosives, including car bombs.
4. Cuba: Medium to Medium Risk – Nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages and sanctions have put additional pressure on the power grid and healthcare system.
5. Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates: Medium to Medium Risk – A 2026 Iran war has exposed the vulnerability of US military installations and key economic sites in these countries to Iranian strikes.
6. Saudi Arabia: Moderate to Medium Risk – Attacks on oil and gas infrastructure, air bases and Saudi Aramco sites, along with renewed risks from the conflict in Yemen, have raised security concerns.
3 countries saw a decrease in risk
The report also lists three countries where security risks have decreased:
– Jamaica: high to medium risk – homicide rate drops by 40% between 2024 and 2025, with preliminary figures for 2026 indicating further reductions in crime.
– South Korea: moderate to low risk – domestic political conditions have stabilized after a period of political instability along with structural reforms.
– Hungary: moderate to low risk – the report attributes a lower risk of civil unrest to the ouster of former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party after 16 years in power.
2026 events shaping the 2027 risk outlook
Global Guardian identifies several developments that could continue to affect security conditions in the coming year:
– 2 major health crises: Hantavirus and Ebola outbreaks have put pressure on public health systems and travel policies.
– 1 Major Energy Disruption: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused what the report describes as the largest oil market disruption ever.
