US-Iran War: Is Tehran Losing the ‘Psychological Influence’ of the Strait of Hormuz? Expert decodes where Tehran is strong | Today’s news
After months of conflict in West Asia, Iran’s power over the Strait of Hormuz may be waning, but the Islamic Republic “has not lost its ability to impose costs”, an expert said, as reports suggested easing traffic on the key trade route.
The Strait of Hormuz was just a weapon for Iran in its war with the United States. Its stranglehold on the strait since the start of the war on February 28 has disrupted global energy supplies and driven oil prices to record highs.
Read also | Iran war news LIVE: Attack on military vehicles in Iran kills three
Clinging to its leverage, Tehran has threatened to attack any unauthorized oil tankers that attempt to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas travel.
But now many believe Iran’s influence over the strait and its grip on Gulf oil may be waning as September exports edged closer to pre-war averages despite continued disruptions.
Strait of Hormuz “Psychological Leverage” Against the US: Is Iran Losing Control?
Dr Pierre Pahlavi, deputy head of the Department of Defense Studies at the Canadian Forces College and the Royal Military College of Canada, told Mint that Iran is losing some of its leverage vis-à-vis the United States – “but it has not lost its ability to impose costs”.
He noted that oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered significantly in recent weeks, although the situation is not fully back to normal. Qatar-bound LNG vessels are once again sailing through the strait, and energy markets have shown they can adjust.
Read also | Hormuz oil flows return to pre-war levels, but oil may still remain at $90-100
“This matters because Iran never needed to completely close Hormuz to gain influence. It only needed to convince markets, insurance companies and governments that the passage is unsafe. If traffic normalizes despite Iranian threats, that psychological influence weakens,” Pahlavi
Tehran’s strategy: “Turn weakness into leverage”
The Pahlavis believe that Tehran’s strategy for years has been to “turn weakness into leverage” — in this case, the Strait of Hormuz.
“Iran cannot conventionally match the United States, so it relies on asymmetric tools: missiles, drones, proxies, disruption of maritime traffic, ambiguity and the constant threat of escalation,” the professor said.
“The Strait of Hormuz has always been one of the most powerful tools in this toolkit,” he added. “What has changed is that the tool is less and less decisive,” he noted.
Hormuz “becomes less decisive”
There is a “central paradox,” as Pahlavi calls it, even as he says Hormuz is “becoming less decisive” in the US-Iran war.
Washington is putting economic pressure on Iran as Tehran checks the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the long suspension is also hurting Iran.
“I would put it this way: Iran is losing the ability to dictate the strategic pace, but it retains the ability to disrupt it,” Pahlavi said.
The professor added: “Hormuz is both Iran’s weapon and Iran’s oxygen supply. Tehran can squeeze an artery, but it can’t do it indefinitely without damaging itself.”
Iran’s Power = “Rising the Game”
The expert emphasized that the US economic pressure is becoming increasingly difficult for the regime to absorb.
Inflation remains very high, access to foreign currency is limited, trade has suffered, and Iran’s leaders themselves are increasingly speaking of economic difficulties and the danger of renewed domestic unrest.
Pahlavi said that while Iran was paying an increasing price “to stay in the game,” that did not mean it had become “powerless.”
“The regime is still standing, but it is paying an increasing price just to stay in the game. This does not mean that Iran is powerless. Quite the opposite,” Pahlavi said.
He analyzed that Iran’s remaining strength is to “make the game expensive, unpredictable and politically inconvenient”, even though the US “still holds the stronger economic and military cards”.
“And that has always been the essence of Iran’s asymmetric strategy: not necessarily to win, but to prevent a stronger opponent from winning cheaply,” Pahlavi.
“A weakened Iran can remain a very dangerous Iran”
He explained that a recent report suggests that Iranian commanders are preparing options for wider retaliation if large-scale US strikes resume, potentially expanding the range of targets.
“Tehran still has missiles, drones, regional networks and the ability to create insecurity throughout the Gulf. A weakened Iran can remain a very dangerous Iran,” Pahlavi.
Strait of Hormuz: What is the status?
Both Iran and the US have their own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In order to leave the strait, ships must obtain permission to pass from one of the two sides.
Those passing through the northern corridor of the strait must apply for permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Meanwhile, ships passing through the southern corridor and hugging the coast of Oman must obtain permission from US authorities.
Many existing ships turn off their automatic identification system transponders and sail through the dark strait. According to reports, Middle Eastern producers continue to export oil on tankers that travel with their transponders turned off.
United States military escorts also help guide and protect selected commercial waterway traffic. In addition, oil is also exported through alternative pipelines (Saudi Arabia and the UAE).
Iran says it has closed the strait, and regional talks on agreed shipping lanes have stalled.
Kpler, a ship-tracking firm, estimates that Arab states in the Middle East have shipped an average of 17 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and refined products so far in September through the Hormuz and those bypassing it by pipeline.
That’s the highest volume since February and close to the pre-war daily total of 21 million, The Economist reported. Iran, by contrast, exports just 200,000 barrels a day, less than a tenth of what it transported before the conflict broke out.
The increase in traffic comes as the risk of tanker attacks remains acute in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the increasing pace, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Agency has reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuzor the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Read also | European gas rises as traders eye further talks on Hormuz
According to Reuters, the latest data from Kpler showed that oil exports from the Middle East rose above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, despite attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The seven-day moving average of oil exports was 18.5 million barrels per day as of Oct. 1, according to Reuters data. These include transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
The number of liquefied natural gas cargoes leaving the Strait of Hormuz in September also rose to the highest monthly level since February. Bloomberg reported on Oct. 5 that supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz extended a rebound that began in September.
While outbound traffic in September climbed to the highest level since the Iran conflict began in late February, flows remain more than 75 percent below pre-war levels, the report added.
On September 20, Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, said in a video message that crude and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks had reached their highest level in six months.
