Chinese President Xi Jinping opened a closely watched meeting with US President Donald Trump on Thursday (May 14th) by warning of the dangers of a “Thucydides Trap”.
In his speech at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Xi Jinping emphasized the global significance of the summit.
“The whole world is watching our meeting,” Xi said as Trump sat across from him.
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The Thucydides Trap is a theory of international relations describing the tension when a rising power challenges an established dominant power. It comes from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who suggested that the rise of Athens and the fear it caused in Sparta made war inevitable.
In modern politics, Thucydides’ trap is often used to describe the tension between the US and China. He suggests that as China’s influence grows, the US may fear losing its dominance, which could lead to increased mistrust and conflict.
Xi has warned that mishandling the Taiwan issue could lead to “clashes and even conflicts” between the US and China. He stated that Taiwan is the most important issue in US-China relations and that mishandling it would jeopardize the entire relationship.
China claims Taiwan as its territory and asserts that there is only one China, with the People’s Republic of China as its sole legal government. Beijing has not ruled out using force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland.
The US recognizes the Chinese position that there is one China and Taiwan is part of it, and in 1979 transferred diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. However, the US maintains strong unofficial relations with Taiwan and is its largest arms supplier.
Describing the current international climate as one of rapid transformation and uncertainty, Xi said the world has reached a critical turning point.
“Currently, a transformation unprecedented in a century is accelerating around the world, and the international situation is fluid and turbulent,” Xi Jinping said.
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“The world has reached a new crossroads.
The Chinese leader then directly referred to the Thucydides Trap – a concept popularized by Harvard scholar Graham Allison and rooted in the writings of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides.
A call for cooperation between China and the US
Xi has questioned whether China and the United States can avoid repeating historical patterns of superpower conflict.
“Can China and the United States Overcome the Thucydides Trap and Create a New Paradigm of Major-Country Relations?” Xi asked.
“Can we face global challenges together and bring more stability to the world?”
He added that the stakes go beyond bilateral relations.
“For the welfare of our two nations and the future of humanity, can we build a better future for our bilateral relations together?”
Xi described the issues facing the two nations as “issues vital to history” and important “to the world and to the people.”
Trump predicts stronger ties
Trump did not directly respond to Xi’s remarks about the Thucydides trap, but struck an optimistic tone regarding future US-China relations.
“The relationship between China and the US will be better than ever before,” Trump said.
The US president also personally praised Xi Jinping during his opening speech.
“It’s an honor to be with you. It’s an honor to be your friend,” Trump said.
Trump emphasized the importance of the talks, adding: “I’m really looking forward to our discussion. It’s a big discussion.”
“There are those who say this is perhaps the greatest summit of all time.”
Background on ‘Thucydides Trap’
Xi has been referring to the Thucydides trap in relation to the United States since at least 2014, often using the concept to argue that confrontation between rising and established powers is not inevitable if both sides carefully manage economic competition.
This idea gained traction through the work of Graham Allison, who examined the historical rivalry between dominant and emerging powers and warned that strategic mistrust could escalate into conflict unless both sides sought cooperation and restraint.
What is the ‘Thucydides Trap’ Theory
The Thucydides Trap is a theory used in international relations to describe the dangerous tension that can arise when a rising power threatens to challenge an established dominant power.
The idea comes from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who wrote about a war between ancient Athens and Sparta about 2,400 years ago.
Thucydides famously wrote: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear it inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.
what does it mean today
In modern politics, the term is often used to describe the tension between the United States—the current global superpower—and China, whose economic, military, and technological influence is rapidly growing.
The theory suggests that:
– Growing power becomes more confident and assertive.
-The existing dominant power is afraid of losing influence.
– Misunderstanding, rivalry and mistrust increase.
-This competition can eventually lead to conflict or war, even though neither side really wants it.
Who popularized the term?
The phrase became widely known after political scientist Graham Allison used it in his 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?.
Allison studied historical instances of rising powers challenging ruling powers and argued that many of these rivalries eventually ended in war.
Why do leaders mention this?
When leaders like Xi Jinping refer to the “Thucydides Trap,” they typically warn that:
-strategic competition between major powers can get out of control,
– both parties must avoid confrontation,
-and diplomacy is necessary to prevent conflict.
Read also | Taiwan Says ‘Nothing Surprising’ After Xi Jinping Warns Trump About Taiwan
