US Midterm Elections 2026: Republicans vs. Democrats, Who Will Control US House, Senate? Prediction markets reveal odds | Today’s news
With just 36 days to go until the US midterm general elections, which will be held across the country on November 3, 2026, all eyes will be on the performance of the governing Republican Party as President Donald Trump’s approval rating plummets amid pressure to end the war in Iran.
Ahead of the 2028 presidential election, November’s “midterm” elections will test the waters for Trump’s party, whose second term has been largely controversial.
A “Midterm” is held halfway through a four-year presidential term, i.e. halfway through a four-year term. The composition of the Congress is decided in these elections. Congress is literally on the list. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives plus one-third of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate are on the ballot.
Which Party Will Win the US House?
According to Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, and Kalshi, the first exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) dedicated to trading based on the outcome of future events, Democrats have a lead over Trump’s Republicans in the US House of Representatives.
With trends pointing to Trump’s party’s failure in the House, Polymarket the data showed 93 percent of bets in favor of Democrats and only 8 percent in favor of Republicans.
On KalshiThe Democratic Party was trading at 91.6 percent, while the Republican Party was at 8.4 percent.
Read also | What do the results of the US midterm polls signal to the world?
Which Party Will Win the US Senate?
In Polymarket’s “which party will win the US Senate in 2026” question, the Democratic Party traded at 63 percent, the Republican at 38 percent.
Meanwhile, the “Democrats Sweep” traded at 61 percent in “Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms.”
How does the medium term prediction market work?
Polymarket explains that the mid-term prediction market allows users to trade “Yes” or “No” stocks to a specific question related to events related to the Midterms, such as “Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms”.
“Each stock pays $1 if the outcome goes in its favor and $0 if it doesn’t,” he says, explaining that the stock’s current price, such as 61% on the “Democracy Sweep,” reflects the market probability of such an outcome at any given time.
Read also | Explainer: Why do the US midterm elections matter to the world?
Every intermediate market on Polymarket has results with a price between 0¢ and 100¢. This price is the implied probability that the outcome will occur.
For example, if the “Democrats Sweep” trades at 61% in “Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms,” traders collectively price around that probability. Prices are constantly updated as new information, data releases and events move trader sentiment.
US midterm elections: Trump’s popularity is falling
The U.S. midterm elections come at a crucial time as Republican discontent with inflation has been growing since Trump launched a war with Iran in February that has sent gasoline and diesel prices soaring.
According to Reuters, Trump’s approval rating is lower than that of his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, whose presidency was also marked by rising inflation and who eventually ended his re-election bid after a poor debate performance raised concerns about his age. Biden’s low was 35%, reached in late October 2024.
Read also | US Midterm Elections 2018: Voters Build Trump Strength and Democratic Resistance
Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 32%, the lowest of his political career, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, as his Republican colleagues chafed at his handling of the cost of living amid the unpopular Iran war. Only 34% of recent survey respondents approve of strikes on Iran.
Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 with promises to curb inflation and end foreign wars. He had a 47% approval rating in a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken hours after he was sworn in.
