Tropical depression forecast: Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana face heavy rain, storm threat | Today’s news
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a tropical storm watch for parts of the Florida Belt, warning that the system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm over the next 24 to 48 hours, while bringing heavy rain, storm surge and possible flash flooding along the Gulf Coast.
Here’s what you need to know.
Where is tropical depression two now?
At 10:00 a.m. CDT (1500 UTC) Sunday, the center of Tropical Depression 2 was located at:
-About 155 miles (250 km) south of Panama City, Florida
– Moving north-northwest at 2 mph (4 km/h)
-Maximum Sustained Wind: 30 mph (45 km/h)
-Minimum central pressure: 1011 mb
According to the NHC, the system only recently developed a well-defined low-level circulation after several days as an area of low pressure over the Gulf.
Why did the NHC classify it as a tropical depression?
Meteorologists said the disturbance was organized enough to earn a tropical cyclone designation.
“A well-defined low-level circulation has now developed within the low pressure area,” the NHC said.
However, the agency noted that the storm remains relatively weak.
“Convective activity remains patchy. . . Circulation is widespread and still weak.”
Which areas are under a tropical storm watch?
The NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for:
Ochlockonee River to the Florida-Alabama border
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 to 48 hours.
Forecasters also warned that further watches could be issued for parts:
over the next day or two.
Will it become a tropical storm?
Yes – according to the current forecast.
The NHC expects gradual strengthening, with Tropical Depression 2 likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday or Monday.
Forecast intensity includes:
-Monday: A tropical storm with winds of 40 mph
– Wednesday: Up to 50 mph (60 mph in gusts)
-Thursday: A remaining tropical storm at 50 mph before moving inland and gradually weakening
Forecasters warned that recovery could be slower than usual due to:
– Dry air surrounding a storm
-Northeast wind shear
-Wide and poorly organized circulation
The rate of intensification later in the week will largely depend on how much of the storm remains over the warm waters of the Persian Gulf instead of moving inland.
Where is the storm expected to go?
Depression moves very slowly.
-Slow movement from north to northwest until Monday
-Turn towards the west or west-northwest in the middle of the week
Movement near or along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast
Current projections suggest the system could eventually track toward coastal Louisiana before moving inland toward Texas later in the week.
The NHC noted that forecast confidence remains lower than usual because small track changes could significantly change the amount of land interaction.
What are the biggest threats?
-Heavy rainfall
– Rain is expected to be the most widespread hazard.
-2 to 4 inches across much of the eastern and central Gulf Coast
Areas where heavy rain is expected include:
The NHC warned that this rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and places with poor drainage.
Tropical storm force winds
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Florida beginning late Monday.
Strong gusts could accompany bands of rain long before the center of the storm approaches.
The NHC predicts 1 to 3 feet of storm surge between:
Officials warned that actual flooding would depend on the timing of the tide and local geography.
Which states should watch the storm?
The NHC urged residents throughout the Gulf Coast to closely monitor future advisories.
In addition to Florida, officials specifically highlighted:
as areas where patrols or warnings may be necessary in the coming days.
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