The world’s most populous country records a birth rate of 1.9; Elon Musk calls India’s birth rate ‘below replacement’ | Today’s news
India – the world’s most populous country with around 147.6 million people – has seen its birth rate fall below the “replacement threshold”, technology entrepreneur Elon Musk said, citing the report. Responding to the numbers shared by the AF Post on X, the head of Tesla and SpaceX wrote: “India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among the most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago.”
His remarks were in response to reports highlighting a sharp decline in birth rates across the country.
India’s birth rate is falling below replacement level
Fresh data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) 2024 report shows that India’s total fertility rate has fallen from 2.1 to 1.9 children per woman. As a result, most states are now below the reproductive fertility benchmark of 2.1.
Replacement fertility refers to the average number of children a woman must have to maintain the population over generations without migration.
According to the report, only six states – Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand – continue to record birth rates above replacement level. Delhi recorded the lowest birth rate in the country with an average of 1.2 births per woman.
Why is the level of exchange important?
Demographers generally consider a TFR of 2.1 to be the level needed to maintain a stable population over time.
When fertility remains below this threshold for an extended period of time, population growth gradually slows and may eventually decline. Experts warn that these trends may contribute to an aging society, a shrinking working-age population and increasing pressure on social and health systems.
UNFPA points to the ongoing demographic shift
India’s changing population structure was also highlighted in the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population Report. The agency estimated India’s fertility rate at 1.9 births per woman, again placing it below the reference benchmark.
Although India remains the world’s most populous country with a population of over 1.46 billion, the latest figures suggest the nation is moving into a new demographic phase characterized by smaller families and slower population growth.
The population is still growing
Despite the declining birth rate, India remains the world’s most populous country. Overtaking China in 2023 to take the top spot globally, the country continues to add millions of people each year due to population momentum from previous decades of higher birth rates.
Experts note that while India’s population continues to grow, a sustained decline in fertility suggests that population growth could slow significantly in the coming decades, leading to a shrinking population by the end of this century.
