Elon Musk warns of falling birth rate in India after report shows birth rate below replacement level | Today’s news
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk drew attention to India’s declining birth rate, noting that the country’s birth rate has now fallen below replacement level.
“India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among the most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago,” Musk wrote in a post on X on Saturday (June 6).
Musk was reacting to data shared by the AF Post, which said India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped from 2.3 births per woman to 1.9 over the past decade, marking the first time in the country’s history that fertility has fallen below replacement.
What the data shows
According to the AF Post, which cited a June 4 article in The Economist, India’s decline in birth rates has been rapid and widespread.
The report found that only six states – Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand – continue to record fertility rates above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Delhi recorded the lowest birth rate in the country at 1.2, lower than Finland. The national TFR is currently 1.9.
Understanding the replacement ratio
A reproductive fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered to be the level needed to replace a population from one generation to the next without migration.
Demographers warn that if fertility remains below this level for an extended period of time, population growth will eventually slow and may eventually lead to population decline, along with challenges such as an aging population and a shrinking workforce.
Sharp regional differences
The report highlighted significant regional differences in fertility trends across India.
Bihar has seen the slowest decline in birth rates in decades and remains one of the states above replacement level. In contrast, Delhi and Tamil Nadu saw some of the sharpest declines despite already having relatively low birth rates.
The findings highlight a growing demographic gap between India’s northern and southern regions, with birth rates falling fastest in more urbanized and economically developed areas.
UNFPA confirms declining fertility
This trend was also reflected in the 2025 report of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) on the state of world population.
According to the report, India’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1.
UNFPA noted that although the birth rate has fallen significantly, India remains home to more than 1.46 billion people and continues to face significant social and economic inequalities.
“Although its birth rate has fallen over the years, India has a population of more than one billion and large inequalities persist, despite significant improvements in health and education,” UNFPA said.
The agency added that maternal mortality, gender discrimination, early marriage and teenage pregnancy remain pressing problems in some parts of the country.
The population is still growing
Despite the declining birth rate, India remains the world’s most populous country. Overtaking China in 2023 to take the top spot globally, the country continues to add millions of people each year due to population momentum from previous decades of higher birth rates.
Experts note that while India’s population continues to grow, a sustained decline in fertility suggests that population growth could slow significantly in the coming decades, leading to a shrinking population by the end of this century.
Read also | India’s fertility problem may be worse than the headlines suggest
