Southwest Monsoon on hiatus: Why rainfall has slowed; when it may rain in Mumbai | Today’s news
India’s southwest monsoon — which broke out over Kerala on June 4 and arrived three days later than the usual date and five days after the IMD forecast — recorded well below normal rainfall. India received 38% less rainfall than the long-term average between June 1 and June 17, raising concerns about a long-term lull.
The Southwest Monsoon – which accounts for more than 70% of the country’s annual rainfall, gradually moved across several regions during the first week of June. However, its progress stalled soon after, with precipitation activity weakening across the country.
What is stopping the monsoon from advancing?
Meteorologists say the lack of a low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal has stalled the movement of the monsoon.
“Currently, there is no meteorological system over the Bay of Bengal. For the monsoon to push the monsoon in the eastern parts of the country, there needs to be a low pressure area. There is also a need to drag the monsoon over the west coast from the Arabian Sea,” Mahesh Palawat, vice president of private weather firm Skymet, was quoted as saying by the Hindustan Times.
He added that monsoon activity is likely to resume after June 22 or 23.
“During the time, a pressure area is likely to develop over the central Bay of Bengal,” he said, adding that Mumbai might be hit by monsoon only around June 25.
When is monsoon expected to revive?
Meteorologists expect the weather to improve during the second half of June. Increased thunderstorm activity is likely between June 22 and June 28 over interior Karnataka, south Tamil Nadu and parts of the Western Ghats.
Rainfall is also expected to intensify along the Kerala and Karnataka coasts, with wet conditions gradually extending northwards towards Mumbai.
Could early July bring stronger monsoon activity?
A more significant recovery is expected between June 29 and July 5. During this period, stronger monsoon currents may produce heavy rainfall over the Western Ghats in southern Kerala and the Konkan region before spreading further inland.
Weather experts remain optimistic that the expected formation of a pressure system over the Bay of Bengal could help restore monsoon momentum and improve rainfall distribution across the country in the coming weeks.
When will monsoon reach Mumbai?
Large parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, continue to wait for significant monsoon showers. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that no major progress of the monsoon is expected in the coming days.
“The moisture content over the Arabian Sea is currently weak. We expect it to advance on the western side from June 23,” IMD DG M Mohapatra told HT.
Although the IMD declared the onset of monsoon over Maharashtra on June 8, rainfall was mostly absent across the state. This situation has prompted the state government to advise farmers not to rush into sowing.
Normally, the monsoon will reach Mumbai by June 11.
