September rainfall will be below normal, says IMD

People move through a flooded area after monsoon rains in Prayagraj on August 31, 2026. Photo credit: PTI

India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall in September, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday (August 31, 2026) predicting rainfall across the country to be at least 9% below the long-term average of 167.9 mm. This comes after India experienced its warmest August since 1901.

Many parts of the country are expected to remain drier than normal, although parts of northwest, northeast, east, east and central India and isolated areas of southeast peninsular India could see “normal to above normal rainfall”.

September brings about a fifth of the monsoon rains from June to September, less than July’s 32% and August’s 29%. In recent years, September precipitation has seen a relative increase. As of 31 August, cumulative monsoon rainfall in India was about 14% below normal, with central India in surplus but the northwest, east and northeast and the southern peninsula all experiencing deficits. The shortage was particularly pronounced in the east and northeast and in the southern peninsula.

The IMD’s outlook at the press conference comes at the end of a dry August. India received 213.3 mm of rainfall in August, the seventh lowest since 2001. The country’s average temperature reached 28.01 °C, about 0.67 °C above normal. The average minimum temperature of 24.36 °C was also the highest on record.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained this as a result of the ongoing El Niño, which is drying the atmosphere and increasing temperatures. However, the month was not uniformly dry, with repeated low pressure systems bringing heavy rain across the Indo-Gangetic plains and parts of central and eastern India.

For September, the IMD expects above-normal maximum temperatures over most of India and above-normal minimum temperatures over most areas, adding to the prospect of a warm, relatively dry end to the monsoon.

Four low pressure systems, precursors to cyclonic storms and in the Indian context mostly originating from the Bay of Bengal, persisted for a combined 26 days in August. This is significantly longer than the climatological average of 16.3 days of low pressure. However, their rainfall activity was largely confined to the Indo-Gangetic plain. Systems repeatedly formed over the Bay of Bengal, moving west-northwestward and weakening over central and northern India.

Frequent western disturbances—extratropical storms originating in the Mediterranean—also interacted with the monsoon circulation and low-pressure or cyclonic circulation, helping to concentrate heavy rainfall over eastern, central-eastern, and parts of northwestern India, rather than triggering a larger-scale monsoon revival.

IMD models indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to intensify during the remainder of the 2026 southwest monsoon season.

The July 31 IMD outlook for August indicated “below normal” rainfall over much of the country and said it was “consistent” with observations in many regions. Notable setbacks were over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southeastern peninsular India, where rainfall was higher than forecast on the back of a “low pressure” system.

Published – 31 Aug 2026 22:37 IST