Monsoon rainfall in 2026 is fourth-lowest since 2001, says IMD

Southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026 was 87% of the long-term average (LPA), with a cumulative rainfall of 759.4 mm during the June–September season, the fourth lowest since 2001 and the thirteenth lowest since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The deficient monsoon, which arrived in Kerala on June 4, three days after its usual onset date of June 1, could weigh on agricultural production, especially in rainfed areas, while damaging crop yields, rural incomes and raising fears of food inflation.

India last experienced sub-normal monsoon in 2023 when rainfall was 95% of LPA.

Read also | How weak monsoon supports India’s power surge and coal deficit

IMD data showed that rainfall was 35.4% below normal in June, 1% above normal in July, 16.3% below normal in August and 7.6% below normal in September.

The southwest monsoon accounts for more than 70% of India’s annual rainfall, while about 45% of the country’s net sown area remains rain-fed. A good monsoon supports rural demand, while poor rainfall weighs on consumption.

The IMD downgraded its monsoon forecast to 90% LPA with a model error of ±4% from 92% on May 29, citing the expected development of El Niño conditions.

Lack of rainfall across the country has affected kharif sowing. Farmers planted 110.39 million hectares as of September 18, which is about 1.5 million hectares less than last year, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture. The headline number masks declines in key crops such as rice, maize, sugarcane and cotton, which are key to India’s food and fiber stocks.

Rice acreage fell by 3.7% year-on-year to 42.9 million hectares. Pulses offered some support, with acreage up 1.4% to 11.9 million hectares, led by gains in Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Telangana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh.

Read also | Power failure warning: Light rain, fog, pollution increase the risk of power failure

Seasonal precipitation

The IMD said the seasonal rainfall over Peninsular India, comprising five meteorological subdivisions – Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe and South Interior Karnataka – during October-December is most likely to be normal at 88-12% LPA.

The LPA of rainfall over Peninsular India during the post-monsoon period based on data from 1971 to 2020 is about 334.1 mm. “Most parts of the country are expected to receive below normal rainfall except some areas of northwest India and southern parts of peninsular India where rainfall is likely to be normal to above normal,” Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD, said.

Also, monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during October 2026 is likely to be below normal, < 85% LPA.

Read also | Water levels in India’s reservoirs drop by 39% even as monsoon rainfall improves

Inflation risks

Experts said another spell of poor rainfall could hit rabi and vegetables, hurting farm incomes, rural demand and food prices.

“So a 13% monsoon deficit this year from June to September, combined with likely sub-normal rainfall in October, reduces the moisture and irrigation base for the Rabi season, just as sowing of wheat, mustard and chana begins,” said Anjal Prakash, professor of public policy at FLAME University in Pune.

“Reservoir level, though better than mid-summer, remains below last year in several key states. Hence, this increases the risk of sub-optimal sowing in rain-fed and canal-dependent pockets of say Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Haryana, which may also translate into lower yield if dry spells persist till early November,” Prakash.

Deficit rainfall could also delay preparations for rabi cultivation in some regions and increase inflationary pressure on food items, especially vegetables and edible oils, Prakash said. He added that weak farm income could also affect rural demand.

India’s retail inflation rose to a 20-month high of 4.82% in August, driven by higher food and fuel prices, pushing it above the central bank’s midpoint target of 4% for the third month since January 2025. Food inflation, a key component of the consumer price index, strengthened to 5.95% in June from 32% in July, 2.5% in July, 2.5% in July, May and 4.20% in April, provisional data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation showed on Monday.

The impact of El Niño

Strong El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific are expected to intensify by the end of the year, raising concerns about their potential impact on weather and agriculture.

“Strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures well above average (especially in the eastern, central and eastern equatorial Pacific). Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) and other major climate models indicate that El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year,” Mohapatra said.

El Niño is a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific that typically changes precipitation patterns around the world. El Niño is generally associated with higher than normal global average temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar warned on Tuesday that the world would face a major food crisis in the coming months, citing fertilizer shortages, disrupted grain supplies and the threat of a super El Niño as the wars in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf hit the economies of the global South.

Speaking at an Asia Society event in New York, Jaishankar said some major grain exporters would be unable to deliver and that significant fertilizer shortages were emerging. “There will probably be a major food crisis in the coming months,” he said, adding Super El Niño to the list of pressures.

Food stocks in India remain well above the prescribed buffer norms, providing a cushion to meet food security requirements. As of September 1, 2026, rice stocks in the central fund stood at 39.05 million tonnes, nearly three times the prescribed reserve norm of 13.5 million tonnes. Wheat stocks were 48 million tonnes, well above the buffer requirement of 27.6 million tonnes.