New Delhi: India is likely to experience the arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala around May 26, according to the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) update, raising hopes for an early start to the crucial kharif sowing season despite forecasts of below-normal rainfall this year.
Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, eight days before its usual start date of June 1.
“The Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ± 4 days,” the IMD said in its latest update.
The IMD also said that conditions are favorable for the advance of monsoon over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 24 hours.
The early start is expected to help sowing of key kharif crops such as paddy, maize, cotton, soybean and oilseeds, agriculture experts said. Early rains could help ease food supply concerns, stimulate rural spending and curb food inflation by reducing reliance on diesel-powered irrigation.
The onset of the monsoon over Kerala marks the formal start of the advance of the Southwest Monsoon across the Indian mainland, signaling the transition from the hot summer season to the rainy season.
The country remains heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon, which accounts for more than 70% of the annual rainfall.
Adequate rainfall boosts the agricultural economy and boosts rural demand. Currently, only about 55% of India’s net crop area is irrigated, the rest being dependent on rainfall. The matter assumes importance as any decline in rainfall will increase the cost of irrigation for farmers.
“Early arrival will be positive for kharif crops considering below normal monsoon forecast. Early arrival and fair distribution of rains is important for kharif crops,” said Sudhir Panwar, a farm expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.
On 13 April, the IMD predicted that India could experience sub-normal rainfall this year, with the southwest monsoon likely to be 92% of the long-term average. Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the long-term average is considered normal.
The last sub-normal monsoon occurred in 2023, when rainfall was 95% of the long-term average.
In its recent report, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised concerns about sub-par rainfall and projected CPI inflation at 4.6% in FY27.
“Persistently elevated energy prices due to conflict in West Asia and possible El Niño conditions (which could have a negative impact on the southwest monsoon) pose pro-inflationary risks,” the RBI said in its report.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs also expressed concern in its April bulletin, saying the forecast of a sub-normal, spatially patchy monsoon underlines the urgency of sound agricultural and water policies.
