After intensive border hostility threatened to suffocate economic activity in key production and export centers in the northern and western parts of the country, the ceasefire brought the level of relief for the sectors, four people directly involved in the trade, and the related political affairs said Mint.
Closing at least 32 civil airports across northern and western India in recent days and increased port controls have begun to disrupt trade streams and caused exodus migrating workers from key industrial nodes. Traders now hope to make the ceasefire easier and reverse migration.
Meanwhile, economists do not expect that the tension of boundaries with Pakistan will affect the economic growth of India. They expect the other half of the fiscal replacement to replace any loss of growth momentum on the back of more winds, such as the perhaps trade agreement with the US at the end of this year, the Great Britain’s business agreement, which has recently been closed, predicts good monsoon, and strong monetary policy support from the Central Bank.
Certainly, with the ceasefire, which is now in place, the exporters and owners of production facilities are carefully optimistic, that migrant workers – from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal – who began to join long -term fears.
Business slows down
Due to migration, production slowed down in production centers such as Amritsar, Jalandhar, Ludhiana, Surrat, Bhaj, Kachchh and Rajkot – where textiles and technical goods form an economic spine, they said.
“With the ceasefire statement, we hope that these (workers) will remain, and those who have left will return,” said one of the four people above, the owner of the textile unit in Ludhiana.
“There is definitely a shift in mood,” said the exporter and car manufacturer based in Rajkot, the second of the four of the above. “If things are stable in the next few days, we should be able to continue normal operations by mid -May.”
“With the right ceasefire, key ports are expected to gradually alleviate increased security protocols and the airport is likely to restore limited operations,” said a government official, the third of four mentioned above. “The industry will now focus on ensuring that the shipments follow deadlines and that the availability of work is restored in the affected zones.”
Temporary uncertainty could still be reflected in the export numbers to May, especially in the sectors of work demanding.
“The escalation apparently influenced the home trade, especially because Punjab, Delhi and Rajasthan are the main markets in the country,” said Rahul Mehta, the main mentor of the Association of Clothing Manufacturers (CMAI). “The situation is under supervision. Some trade fairs that will take place in Ludhiana and Chandigarh, already abolished or postponed. One main textile show in Ahmedabad was also dismissed. Overall, the sentiment is not very positive.”
Mehta added that although the situation no longer wonders, the prevailing uncertainty will affect the market. “Under such circumstances, the business will continue, but very carefully,” he said.
The Council for Promotion of Export Exports (EEPC) said that shipments of investment goods have not yet been affected, but have recognized the risks if the situation is dragged. “Since the tension did not study, the supplier chains and outgoing shipments will not affect and should return to their regular course,” said EEPC chairman Pankaj Chaddha Mint.
Although the government has not issued official business counseling, emergency plans are discussed with states to ensure logistics routes and stabilize the availability of work, especially in the textile sector and engineering goods, another government official, the fourth person mentioned earlier.
Questions E -mail E -mail to the Ministry of Trade, Textiles and the main secretaries Gujarat and Pandjab remained unanswered until the press time.
Economic momentum intact
Economists remain optimistic about the Indian GDP growth trajectory and bet on 6.5% GDP growth in the current fiscal (FY26)-in the range of 6.3-6.8% of the growth reflected in economic survey 2024-25.
“We should continue with our investment plans and I think we should be able to maintain our economic growth rate of 6.5%,” said EY DK Srivastava, Chief Political Advisor, adding that this would help to complete the proposed free trade agreement.
Srivastava said India could somewhat higher allocation in defense. India has a defense budget £4.9 trillion in contemporary fiscal, 7.6% compared to the period a year ago.
Sachchidanand Shukla, the chief economist of the Larsen & Toubro group, said that this fiscal would be the story of two different halves. The first half was marked by uncertainty mainly from the announcement of the US mutual tariff and to a lesser extent border voltage with Pakistan.
“The other half is expected to be well and replace any loss of growth momentum in the first half when India combines a business agreement with the US, as was the case with the United Kingdom,” said Shukla. “In addition, growth that has a currency policy, RBI (Reserve Bank of India) and expected over normal monsoon is likely to strengthen economic expansion in the second half. Overall, we are going to end FY25-26 with approximately 6.3-6.8% growth.”
RBI predicts the Indian economy, which will expand to 6.5%in the current financial year. According to the Union budget per year, GDP is expected to rise to 10.1%. Experts bet on the resistance of the domestic economy, improve consumption demand, release inflation, public investment in infrastructure and government plans for fiscal consolidation.
RBI stated in its statement about monetary policy of April 9, which came after the announcement of mutual tariff that the risks are evenly balanced around its basic projection of 6.5% of the growth of this fiscal and uncertainty remained high after the recent increase in global volatility.
Certainly, mutual tariffs announced on 2 April US are suspended for 90 days by the beginning of July to facilitate business negotiations.
Key export hubs
Tiruppur, known for knitted clothing, is one of the main prices of the Indian textile manufacturing hubs; Ludhiana for wool and stockings products; and surrat for synthetic fabrics. Ahmedabad and Mumbai-Bhiwandi are key centers for cotton and powerloom. Panipat leads in home furniture, while Karur, Coimbatore and Erode are known for textile garments and processing. Bhagalpur and Varanasi are known for silk and traditional weaving.
Indian centers for the production of Indian engineering products include Rajkot, known for automatic parts and machine tools, and Ludhiana, which specializes in bikes and hand tools. Coimbatore is the main center for pumps and engines, while Jamshedpur is located large steel and heavy technical units. Pune and Chennai are strong in automotive and industrial machines. Howrah has a long -term base in light engineering and casting.
The textile export was $ 34.40 billion in FY24 and rose to $ 36.55 billion in FY25, while the export of technical goods increased to $ 116.54 billion in FY25, from $ 109.22 billion in FY24.
(Tagstotranslate) Careful optimism
