A US soldier has been accused of using secret military intelligence to raise more than $400,000 on the Polymarket prediction market – betting on catching Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro before the mission was made public. Gannon Van Dyke, a special forces sergeant at Fort Bragg, was given bond on Friday after it emerged he was also blocked from trading on rival platform Kalshi, Business Insider reports.
Who is Gannon Van Dyke – and what is he accused of?
Gannon Van Dyke, a 38-year-old master sergeant stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, was charged with wire fraud, commodities fraud, theft of classified government information, illegal use of confidential government information for personal gain and illegal money transactions. Prosecutors say Van Dyke drew on classified knowledge of Operation Absolute Resolve — a covert U.S. military mission to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — to place a series of bets on the Polymarket prediction market platform that ultimately netted more than $400,000 in profits.
Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Maduro for approximately one month, according to New York federal prosecutors. He signed nondisclosure agreements that specifically promised not to divulge “any classified or sensitive information” related to the operation. Plaintiffs say he immediately violated them.
Bets: Timed to an hour before the missiles hit Caracas
The timeline laid out in a parallel complaint filed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is remarkable for its precision. On Dec. 26, Van Dyke transferred $35,000 from his personal bank account to a cryptocurrency exchange — a little more than a week before U.S. forces flew into Caracas and seized Maduro. Between December 30 and January 2, he made a series of bets on when Maduro might be ousted from power. The vast majority of these bets were placed on the night of January 2 – just hours before the first shots hit Caracas.
The trades resulted in “more than $404,000 in profits,” according to the CFTC complaint.
Four of the offenses carry a maximum sentence of ten years each; a fifth carries up to twenty years.
Kalshi blocked by Van Dyke — Polymarket alerted the feds
In a notable development, Van Dyke apparently tried to open an account on Kalshi, Polymarket’s main rival in the prediction markets space, but was stopped before he could do so, Business Insider reported.
Elisabeth Diana, head of communications for Kalshi, confirmed to Business Insider that Van Dyke “didn’t go through the process of vetting and getting to know their customer,” though she declined to elaborate.
For its part, Polymarket says it was the platform that ultimately alerted federal authorities to the suspicious activity. In a post on X, CEO Shayne Coplan wrote: “The noise aside, the reality is that we proactively work with all relevant authorities on any suspicious activity in our marketplace. We’ve reported it, referenced it, and cooperated throughout the process. This happens behind the scenes all the time, despite what many believe.”
In a separate post, Coplan added: “Every trade is public, permanent and auditable. Bad actors leave a trail.”
Bond Granted: Van Dyke Released on $250,000 unsecured bond
Van Dyke made his first appearance in federal court in North Carolina on Friday, where a magistrate judge allowed him to be released on $250,000 unsecured bail — meaning he did not have to post any money up front. Bearded and tattooed, he said little during the nearly hour-long hearing in which he was appointed federal public defender. A magistrate judge ordered him to report to federal court in New York by Tuesday, where the case will continue.
The government did not try to detain him. He was not subject to travel restrictions beyond the requirement to appear in court.
The FBI and CFTC both weigh in
The case attracted the attention of the highest levels of federal law enforcement. In a post on social media, FBI Director Kash Patel wrote: “This involved an American soldier who allegedly used his position to profit from a righteous military operation.”
The chairman of the CFTC, Michael Selig, was also warned: “The defendant was entrusted with confidential information about US operations and yet took actions that endangered US national security and endangered the lives of US nationals.”
The quiet new neighbor with tattoos and a secret
One of Van Dyke’s new neighbors in Fayetteville, where he moved just weeks ago, painted a telling picture of the man at the center of the case. Larry Duncan, a former Marine who once worked on a contract at Fort Bragg, said he introduced himself shortly after Van Dyke moved in. “I said, ‘You look like special forces. He just smiled,'” Duncan recalled. “I worked on assignment at Fort Bragg. I know how those people act. He was ragged, quiet, a little secretive.”
US prediction markets under increasing scrutiny
The case has reignited a fierce debate over regulatory oversight of prediction markets — platforms that allow users to trade the outcome of real-life events, from elections and sports competitions to geopolitical developments and reality TV shows.
The sudden rise in popularity of these platforms has prompted bipartisan calls in Congress to protect against insider trading, especially after a series of highly specific, well-timed bets around US and Israeli military action against Iran and around President Donald Trump’s policy decisions.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket formally prohibit insider trading and the use of confidential information. But critics say the verification and compliance mechanisms currently in place are insufficient to prevent large-scale abuse.
The political dimensions of the industry add further complexity. Trump’s eldest son serves as an advisor to both Polymarket and Kalshi, and is also an investor in Polymarket.
Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, is separately launching its own prediction marketplace, Truth Predict. The Trump administration broadly supports the industry’s expansion.
Van Dyke is being prosecuted in New York.
