July’s deficit has been wiped out, but the monsoon has brought 16% less rainfall so far

A view of the waterlogged areas of Limbayat Meethi Khadi after an overflowing stream inundated low-lying localities following continuous heavy monsoon rains in Surat on July 24, 2026. | Photo credit: PTI

A period of exceptionally heavy rainfall over Gujarat, aided by a low pressure system tracking west of the Bay of Bengal and its interaction with a Western Disturbance, has virtually wiped out India’s rainfall deficit for July – the most important monsoon month – although large parts of the Northeast remain rain-deficient.

As of July 24, rainfall across the country for July stood at 215.5 mm, against the normal of 215 mm – eliminating the monthly deficit after a dry start to the month. However, cumulative monsoon rainfall from June 1 to July 24 remained 16.1% below normal nationwide, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data. In percentage terms, East and North East (E&NE) India continued to be the best performing region with a seasonal deficit of 31.9%, while South Peninsular India recorded a deficit of 26.8%.

“The deficit has come down now,” IMD CEO Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told The Hindu. “The low pressure system developed over the Bay of Bengal has moved across Orissa to Gujarat and Rajasthan and provided ample opportunity for good rainfall during the past week. The Western Disturbance has also passed over North India and there has been interaction between the two.”

While heavy rains were reported from parts of Assam and Nagaland, Mr. Mohapatra said it would be wrong to characterize the Northeast as witnessing an exceptional rain event. “There have been heavy rains, but it’s not that unusual of activity,” he said. “While central India gets more rain, northeast India generally gets less as the monsoon trough is south of its normal position. We also cannot confirm any cloudburst…but exceptionally heavy rainfall is over Gujarat this time.”

The base level of rainfall in E&NE is higher than other parts of the country. Therefore, even a deficit of rainfall in statistical terms can translate into significant rain in absolute terms. For example, between 1 June and 24 July, the normal rainfall in eastern and northeastern India is 66.4 cm. This year, even with a 31% deficit, it is 45.2 cm. Regionally, this is still the highest rainfall in India and more than the actual 39 cm in central India and 23 cm in the southern peninsula.

Weekly rainfall deficits persisted in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, although sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim recorded above-normal rainfall for several weeks.

However, the agency warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall to continue over Assam, Meghalaya and other northeastern states in the coming days with the possibility of landslides and waterlogging. So far, at least 47 people have died and 7.21 million people have been affected by the floods in Assam.

Low tank level

Despite a dramatic improvement in rainfall over western and central India, reservoir storage remains well below last year’s levels, reflecting the impact of a weak June monsoon. According to the Central Water Commission’s weekly bulletin, 166 major monitored reservoirs across the country contained 70.43 billion cubic meters of water as of July 23, equivalent to 38.4% of their live storage capacity. That’s only 63.7% of the storage available at the same time last year and roughly 93% of the 10-year average for that period.

The latest IMD weather bulletin for Friday (July 24, 2026) has predicted isolated exceptionally heavy rainfall over Gujarat on Friday (July 24, 2026) and Saturday (July 25, 2026) and extremely heavy rainfall over parts of Madhya (interior) Maharashtra, with a low pressure position in southern Rajoon region above its normal pressure above the southern pressure. location.

The improvement in July rainfall also marks a significant turnaround from the conditions prevailing in June. The country fell 37.1% below normal during June, while East and Northeast India recorded a deficit of 35.5% and Central India 50.3%. At the end of July, central India turned into a monthly surplus, offsetting the persistent deficits in the eastern and peninsular regions.

Earlier this year, the IMD had predicted a below-normal southwest monsoon for the country, largely on the back of a developing El Niño. In its long-term outlook, it projected below-normal seasonal rainfall over much of eastern and northeastern India and parts of southern peninsular India, while expecting above-normal rainfall over central India and adjoining areas. The Hindu also reported that rainfall in July is likely to be below normal nationally, with monthly rainfall expected to be below 94% of the long-term average.

Published – 24 Jul 2026 23:06 IST