Joby showed off his Air Taxi in Manhattan, but you can’t fly it yet

Under clear blue skies this past April, a new kind of electric plane flew from Kennedy International Airport into the heart of Manhattan. The journey took about 10 minutes, a fraction of the hour or more it might take in a car.

The flight offered a glimpse of how the aircraft, which is made by Joby Aviation and combines the characteristics of a helicopter and an airplane, and others like it, might one day work in cities. It was made possible by a federal program that seeks to accelerate the arrival of what is often called air taxis.

Companies making new electric planes and some industry experts say air taxis will one day replace helicopters and possibly even cars for some purposes. But some skeptical experts say the plane will be more expensive than helicopters and have relatively limited use, noting that the industry has promised commercial flights for years, but no company has received federal approval to routinely carry passengers or cargo in the United States.

“It’s not going to be like we look out the window and there are flying cars everywhere,” said Laurie Garrow, an engineering professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology who focuses on aeronautics. “I think in the next two to five years we’re going to look at these aircraft coming into service and filling those gaps in the market.”

The Trump administration was so eager to usher in that era that it created a program last year to encourage states, cities and companies to work together to help deploy electric aircraft for passenger, cargo and medical operations.

In March, the Department of Transportation selected eight projects in 26 states, including the one that allowed Joby’s pilot-only demonstration flight in New York.

One of the main goals of the administration’s efforts is to ensure that the United States does not fall behind China, which is the world leader in commercial drones and is also developing air taxis; at least one company there has received a limited commercial flight license using a drone. The UAE is also preparing for commercial air taxi flights in partnership with Joby and rival manufacturer Archer Aviation.

“The United States still has scars from 2000 when it gave up the entire drone market to China,” said Sergio Cecutta, an aviation consultant. “The whole idea with this push from Washington is to make sure it doesn’t happen again.”

The federal program allows limited operations, including some commercial flights, which Aerotaxi says will help them gain flying experience and collect data. It also allows local government officials and residents to become more familiar with the technology.

However, air taxi companies cannot begin scheduled commercial flights until the FAA certifies the aircraft after rigorous testing. How soon the agency will certify its first air taxi is unclear.

There are three leading American companies in the field of electric aviation: Joby, Archer and Beta Technologies. All three are developing planes that can take off and land like helicopters and move through the air like airplanes, while Beta is also developing a version that only flies like an airplane, which it plans to bring to market first. Boeing subsidiary Wisk Aero is also developing an air taxi, but that plane will be certified later, experts said, as it is expected to fly autonomously.

Toyota is a major investor in Joba and provides manufacturing expertise. Archer has a similar partnership with Stellantis, the parent company of Fiat, Jeep and Ram. And GE Aerospace has invested in and is working on the technology with Beta.

The Joby demonstration flight departed Kennedy before noon on April 27. A few minutes later, he landed at the West 30th Street helipad, just outside Penn Station. The helipad is often used by Blade, a company that connects cities to airports around the world with conventional helicopters. Blade sold its passenger business last year to Joby, which plans to eventually replace Blade helicopters with its own aircraft.

The most likely use for air taxis, which can generally fly short distances before needing to be recharged, is as a replacement for helicopters, which are noisy and relatively high-maintenance, experts said. In the more distant future, rich people may use electric planes as a replacement for self-driving cars.

How widely the aircraft will be used will depend primarily on how much they cost to manufacture, operate and maintain. Aviation experts are deeply divided on how that math works out.

Most analysts agree that air taxis will be expensive to produce at first. According to some experts, the plane could cost as much as $5 million in the early days, the same or more than a helicopter, which can carry more passengers, travel further and refuel more easily. Production can also be difficult to speed up because aerotaxis use lightweight and strong carbon composites that are more expensive and more difficult to manufacture than aluminum, titanium, steel and other metals traditionally used for helicopters.

“It’s a huge speed bump for manufacturing,” said Bjorn Fehrm, an aerospace and economic analyst at Leeham, an aerospace consulting firm.

Most experts say air taxis should have lower operating costs than helicopters, especially if they fly frequently. The newer aircraft will not rely on expensive jet fuel and complex mechanical components. As air taxi companies build more planes, their executives say the cost of each will drop.

“The first thing is you want to scale it up, and then the economics of the unit will be in line,” Joby founder and chief executive JoeBen Bevirt said in an interview next to Joby’s plane after it touched down in Manhattan in April.

But some experts say the intense power needed to take off and land will strain the plane’s batteries, which may require frequent maintenance or replacement. They also say that air taxis may not fly as often as their manufacturers expect because they will be limited by weather conditions, local regulations, pilot availability and other issues.

There will be more challenges. High-powered chargers will be needed at airports, helipads, or anywhere else where air taxis can land. In a message Published last week, the Government Accountability Office said one airport estimated the cost of providing charging infrastructure at one location could cost about $2 million.

Eric Lentell, Archer’s chief legal and strategy officer, said the industry is improving its technology and manufacturing methods to reduce costs, not unlike Tesla after it introduced its first model, the two-door Roadster sports car.

“If you look back at that Roadster, you’d say, ‘That wasn’t a viable product in today’s market,'” he said.

But the biggest obstacle will be certification.

New versions of existing jets produced by Boeing and Airbus can take many months or even years to get approval from the FAA and its European counterpart. An entirely new kind of aircraft could take longer. Aviation experts say regulators are likely to be even more cautious than in the past because the Boeing 737 Max has had two accidents in which everyone on board was killed. These crashes in 2018 and 2019 occurred just a few years after the aircraft was certified.

Joby, Archer and Beta have made progress with the FAA. None said it had begun certification flight testing with agency-employed pilots, an important step, although Joby says he expects to begin those flights later this year.