Isaias Landfall Forecast: Tropical Storm Heading for US Gulf Coast; Florida declares state of emergency

Tropical Storm Isaias has formed over the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to rapidly intensify over the coming days, potentially reaching significant hurricane strength. AccuWeather expects Isaias to become a hurricane over the central Gulf before making landfall along the Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, with the storm likely to reach Category 2 strength and possibly briefly strengthen to Category 3.

AccuWeather hurricane experts said Isaias is likely to become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, potentially making it the last first hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin in more than 100 years.

The storm is expected to bring a combination of storm surge, heavy rainfall and damaging winds to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

Isaias was centered about 285 miles (460 km) west of Progreso, Mexico, and about 580 miles (935 km) southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and was moving east-northeast at 8 mph (13 km/h).

Isaias land forecast

The exact location of Isaias’ landing remained uncertain. According to the AP, initial projections from the National Hurricane Center indicated that the center of the storm could come ashore late Friday or early Saturday somewhere between eastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle.

Residents along the northern Gulf Coast were urged to monitor the storm’s progress and prepare for possible impacts.

“The risk of dangerous wind gusts and storm surges is increasing along part of the northern Gulf Coast,” the hurricane center said, according to the AP agency.

The agency urged residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle to closely monitor forecast updates and make sure they have hurricane plans in place.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also declared a state of emergency for 25 counties across the Panhandle and Big Bend regions, the AP reported. The declaration activates the state’s emergency management plan and allows authorities to deploy personnel and equipment to respond to potential impacts.

Isaias could reach Category 3 strength

AccuWeather currently expects Isaias to reach Category 2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale before making landfall late Friday night or early Saturday morning.

However, there is a possibility that the storm could become a major hurricane before it reaches the coast.

“There is a chance that the storm will intensify as a Category 3 or major hurricane over the central Gulf,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno warned.

There is a threat of heavy rain in the southeast of the USA

Beyond the potential landfall zone, Isaias is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast and much of the southeastern U.S. from Friday into the weekend, according to forecasters cited by the AP.

The storm was also expected to strengthen as it moved toward the Gulf Coast, raising concerns about wind and storm impacts along parts of the northern Gulf Coast.

The hurricane center said Isaias is pronounced “ees-ah-EE-ahs.”

Chance of rain 25 cm

While strong winds and storms could cause major problems along the coast, AccuWeather said the biggest threat from Isaias could be heavy rainfall and flooding.

The storm is expected to produce 1-4 inches of rain across a wide swath of the southeastern United States, while areas near and just east of the storm’s center could see 4-8 inches or 8-12 inches.

The AccuWeather StormMax local rain forecast is 25 inches.

The threat of flooding could be particularly severe in areas where the ground remains saturated after heavy rains last week.

Gale force winds and rainfall are expected to increase as Isaias approaches the north central Gulf Coast. After landfall, heavier and more persistent rain could spread inland along a north-northeast track.

Wind gusts to 120 mph, severe storm threat

AccuWeather is forecasting wind gusts of 100-120 mph near and just east of the hurricane’s center if Isaias reaches hurricane strength before landfall. Its local StormMax wind gust is 120 mph.

The broader Southeast could experience tropical storm force winds of 40-60 mph, especially around the central Gulf Coast and into Tennessee.

The worst wind damage and coastal storm flooding is expected near and just east of where the storm makes landfall, AccuWeather said.

The strengthening storm is also expected to cause higher sea levels and large swells, creating hazardous conditions for small craft and increasing the risk of strong rip currents along Gulf Coast beaches.

Tornadoes, waterspouts also possible

In addition to flooding and hurricane-force winds, Isaias could bring other severe weather hazards.

“Another storm hazard will be the risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes and waterspouts,” Rayno said.

The bulk of the severe weather is expected near and east of the storm’s center, though the threat of tornadoes and waterspouts could extend hundreds of miles to the east this weekend, according to AccuWeather.