The US-Israel war against Iran is now in its fifth week, and according to public opinion polls, it is the most unpopular conflict in the country’s history. That’s more bad news for Donald Trump’s administration, which is already on the back foot in November’s midterm elections.
A prolonged war or even greater US losses, including service personnel, could tilt the vote even further in favor of Democrats, leaving Trump as a lame-duck president for the rest of his second and final term.
2028 Republican presidential nominee
Despite Trump’s repeated suggestion that his name could be on the ballot in 2028, the 79-year-old is unlikely to win a third term, leaving one of his two close confidants as his likely successor as the Republican presidential nominee.
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These are US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Analysts believe the Iran war could be a turning point for Vance and Rubio, who are currently involved in the negotiating process.
Does Trump favor Rubio?
Some Republicans say they are keeping a close eye on which senior aide Trump appears to favor as the Iran conflict unfolds.
According to Reuters, a quick end to the war in favor of the US could boost Rubio, who also serves as Trump’s national security adviser and could be seen as a steady hand during the crisis. The long conflict could give Vance room to argue that he reflects the anti-war instincts of Trump’s base without openly breaking with the president.
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“Everybody is watching the body language that Trump is doing on Rubio and they’re not seeing the same on Vance,” a Republican with close ties to the White House told Reuters.
But the White House dismissed the idea that Trump was signaling a preference.
“No amount of crazy media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will detract from this administration’s mission to fight for the American people,” said spokesman Steven Cheung.
Which might work for Vance
Recently, Vance was involved in what is being described as a tense phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu over the possibility of a US-Israeli bombing campaign to topple the Iranian regime.
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According to Axios, US officials also believe that some of their Israeli counterparts view the vice president as insufficiently hawkish and that the Israelis have sought to undermine the vice president as he takes a leadership role in trying to end the war.
A senior US official told Axios that “if the Iranians can’t get a deal with Vance, they won’t get a deal. It’s the best they’re going to get.”
According to Reuters, Vance could take a more direct role in the negotiations if Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner make enough progress, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
Rubio vs. Vance
A person familiar with Vance’s views told Reuters the vice president would wait until after November’s midterm elections before deciding whether to run in 2028.
Rubio has said he will not run for president if Vance does, and sources familiar with Rubio’s views say he would be comfortable as Vance’s running mate.
In the past, Trump has floated the idea of Vance and Rubio running together, suggesting they would be hard to beat.
Key things
- The Iran war is a pivotal moment for JD Vance and Marco Rubio in shaping their political futures.
- Public sentiment toward the war could influence the upcoming midterm elections and the Trump administration.
- The dynamics of Trump’s support could play a crucial role in determining the 2028 Republican nominee.
