Iran war and the uncertain future of expats

A group of women near the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The GCC hosts more than 25 million Asian migrants, making it one of the largest labor migration corridors in the world. | Photo credit: AP

with Iran was casting a long shadow over the Persian Gulf over the past two weeks, what once seemed like an area of ​​glittering airports, financial centers and endless construction now looks extremely vulnerable. India has already recognized the gravity of the crisis. The Ministry of External Affairs said that in less than a week since the start of the Gulf War, more than 52,000 Indians have already returned from the Gulf under special arrangements and the number may increase in the coming days. India has also repeatedly issued alerts regarding West Asia, showing that this is a real regional emergency.

For the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, the danger is not just military, but structural. These states have built their prosperity on stability, open sea lanes, energy exports, global finance and migrant labor. The long war threatens each of these pillars. Iran’s strategic logic is also clear enough. Tehran does not view the several GCC monarchies as neutral neighbors but as part of a broader US-led security architecture in the region. This perception is influenced by the long presence of Western military bases and the political afterlife of the Abraham Accords, which began formal normalization between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020. In Iran’s view, the Persian Gulf cannot claim neutrality without remaining tied to the American security power and, in some cases, new agreements with Israel.

Published – March 12, 2026 12:53 PM IST