Iran still ‘begging’ for deal, Trump says; 100 days later she hasn’t signed a single | Today’s news
Since the US declared a ceasefire with Iran on April 7, US President Donald Trump has said, published and broadcast at least 37 times that a peace and nuclear deal with Tehran is close, agreed in principle or just days away from being signed. None of these predictions came true.
The record goes back to March 23, less than a month into the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began on February 28, and runs through statements made last weekend to Monday, when Trump said at a televised rally for Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina that “total victory” was a fortnight away. Analysts following the conflict say the gap between the president’s statements and events on the ground reflects a war that has quietly exposed the limits of American military power.
Thirty-seven predictions, zero deals: Trump’s Iran claim since March
The pattern settled down within days of the start of the conflict. On March 23, Trump told reporters outside Air Force One that the two administrations had reached “major points of agreement, I would say — almost all points of agreement.” Iranian officials flatly denied that any negotiations were taking place.
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The following day, the second part of Trump’s rhetoric took shape: the characterization of Iran as desperate for a settlement. “I think we’re going to end it,” he told reporters on March 24. “I can’t tell you for sure. By March 25, Iran wanted to “make a deal so bad.” The next day’s cabinet meeting was to “beg for a deal”.
By March 29, a reporter asked Trump directly if he expected a deal to be made within the next week. “I see a deal in Iran, yes,” he said.
From ‘begging for a deal’ to ‘willing to give us everything’: The full timeline
The cease-fire announcement on April 7 brought the most extensive set of guarantees to date. Trump posted on social media that the parties were “very far” and needed only two weeks “to get the deal done and fulfilled,” adding that “it’s an honor to have this long-standing issue close to being resolved.”
Eight days later, on April 15, he told Fox Business: “I think it’s close to the end, I see it as very close to the end.” He added: “We’ll see what happens. I think they want to do the deal very badly.”
Read also | Iran and Israel suspend strikes after new firefight
The pace of predictions peaked on April 16 and 17. “It looks very good that we’re going to get a deal with Iran, and it’s going to be a good deal,” Trump told reporters on the 16th. In just three separate appearances on April 17, he said that Iran had “agreed to everything,” that “I think we’ll get a deal in the next day or two” and that “I don’t think there are too many significant differences.” On April 20, he predicted on Truth Social that “it’s all going to happen, relatively quickly!”
No agreement was reached. By April 30, Iran was still “dying after the deal.” On May 1, Trump offered a timeline to reporters: “When the war is over, which shouldn’t be too long…”
On 18 May, he announced a pause in military strikes lasting “two or three days”, citing regional allies who believed a deal was “very close”. He briefly appeared to confirm the record: “We had a period where we had — we thought we were pretty close to getting a deal done, and it didn’t work out,” he said, adding, “But this is a little bit different.” At a congressional picnic the next day, he said, “We’re going to end this war very quickly.”
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By May 23, he was making the rounds again. The administration was “getting very close”; the deal was “largely negotiated, subject to finalization”; the announcement would come “soon”; only the “final aspects” remained to be discussed. On May 28, in an interview with his daughter-in-law Lara Trump, things were “close to a very good deal.”
Last Sunday, Trump told Axios: “We’re very close to a final deal with Iran. It’s going to be a good deal. I don’t want it to blow up because of what’s going on right now.” By this outlet’s calculations, it was at least the third time Trump had made such a claim on his site. He also told reporters the same day that the sides were “very close to a deal” but that a new firefight between Israel and Iran threatened to derail it.
On a tele-rally Monday, he predicted “total victory” within two weeks. “We are negotiating now, they want to make a very good deal,” he said. “They are willing to give us everything.
A box Trump can’t get out of right now’: What analysts are saying
The persistence of unfulfilled predictions has drawn scathing assessments from analysts who have followed the Middle East across various administrations. Aaron David Miller, a former US State Department official who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, identified a critical strategic nexus facing the White House.
“Trump started a war in which he overestimated America’s military capacity and underestimated Iran’s,” Miller said. “That’s a box Trump can’t get out of right now.”
Read also | Iran says it has not abandoned the talks despite recent clashes with Israel
Miller acknowledged that Trump has demonstrated a degree of influence over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, given how much Netanyahu’s political survival depends on Washington’s continued support. But he said the administration has yet to achieve a comparable shift in Iranian thinking.
“He hasn’t proven yet that he can change Tehran. That’s his big problem,” Miller said.
The Hormuz standoff and Iran’s nuclear demands
The stalemate rests on two interlocking issues that have resisted resolution during four months of fighting. Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not been broken by the US counter-blockade of Iranian shipping, which keeps pressure on world energy prices to rise. Meanwhile, Trump’s demand for sweeping Iranian concessions on its nuclear program has met with persistent opposition from Tehran.
Trump, for his part, has hit out at critics looking at his war record. Last week, he complained on social media that critics were “chirping” that he should “move faster, or slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever.” Telling them to “sit back and relax”, he insisted, “it will all work out in the end – it always does!”
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When pressed on Sunday whether the conflict he once described as a “little excursion” was actually the kind of “endless war” he has vowed to avoid, Trump was unequivocal: “I don’t like these endless wars,” he said, while insisting that “this is not an endless war.” He made the comparison to Iraq: “Look at Iraq. You’ve been there for years. We’ve been there for months. And the threat is largely gone. It’s going to be over soon.”
Military power also has its limits: The cost of four months of war
Brad Bowman, a former US Army officer and senior military analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that takes a hawkish stance on Iran, said the campaign exposed the real limitations of the world’s most powerful military.
“The United States has shown that it has the leading military in the world, but that this military power also has limitations,” Bowman said. “I’m afraid this administration has underestimated the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Bowman also expressed concern about the form of a potential settlement: “My concern is that the president is codifying a bad deal,” he said. If the war ended with Iran’s leadership “angry and still armed” and retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, he said, “I would say that’s a negative outcome for the United States.
Read also | Netanyahu credits Trump with de-escalating Israeli-Iranian tensions
He noted that the depletion of American ammunition stocks during the campaign had weakened the country’s position in both Europe and Asia. Although he identified increased economic and political pressure as the preferred way forward, he conceded that it would be difficult to sustain given Iran’s continued ability to keep fuel prices high through its control of the strait.
Trump vs Netanyahu: Another obstacle to the Iran deal
The administration’s woes are compounded by the fractured relationship between Trump and Netanyahu. Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday that the Israeli prime minister “will have no choice” but to accept the deal brokered by Washington, making clear: “Anything is possible.” Hours later, just after 5:30 a.m. Monday, he posted on social media calling for both sides to back down: “Israel and Iran must immediately stop ‘shooting’.”
The friction followed a phone call Trump admitted to Netanyahu in which profanity was exchanged over Israel’s escalating strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah. “I was a little concerned about his constant fighting with Lebanon,” Trump said.
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Iran and Israel on Monday confirmed an end to direct firefights after their first mutual attacks since April, giving the administration some short-term relief. Whether that will translate into the sustained progress that 37 forecasts have so far failed to produce remains, as it has since March, an unanswered question.
Polls show growing public disapproval of the conflict with midterm elections looming, adding a domestic political dimension to the pressure already on the administration from financial markets, regional allies and the Iranian government, which has so far shown no sign of agreeing to terms that Trump continues to describe as all but agreed.
