Iran on Wednesday released the first government-issued death toll from a sweeping crackdown on nationwide protests, claiming more than 3,000 dead – sharply lower than estimates given by rights groups abroad – as the Islamic republic struggles to regain control after unrest that has been compared to that of the 1979 revolution.
Tehran admits deaths, disputes scale of violence
State television aired a statement from Iran’s Interior Ministry and the Martyrs and Veterans Affairs Foundation, which said 3,117 people had been killed in Iran during demonstrations that began on December 28. Authorities said 2,427 of the dead were civilians and members of the security forces, without clarifying the status of the remaining victims.
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Iran’s leadership has historically understated or withheld death toll figures during periods of unrest, a pattern that has fueled skepticism among human rights organizations and foreign governments.
Activists cite much higher tolls amid information blackout
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said early Thursday that at least 4,902 people had been killed, with fears that the final number would be significantly higher. The group, which relies on an extensive network of activists inside Iran, has previously provided figures later confirmed by independent investigations.
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The Associated Press said it was unable to independently verify the death toll, citing Iran’s near-total internet shutdown since Jan. 8, restrictions on international calls and strict controls on domestic media coverage. Iranian state sources have repeatedly described the protesters as “rioters” allegedly motivated by the United States and Israel, without providing evidence.
Arrests are increasing as fears of executions grow
The Human Rights Activists News Agency estimates that nearly 26,500 people have been arrested since the unrest began. The statement by Iranian officials heightened fears that some of the detainees could face execution in a country that is already among the world’s most prolific users of the death penalty.
The scale of the violence makes the current crackdown the deadliest episode of protest unrest in Iran in a decade, eclipsing previous demonstrations in both scale and severity.
Secretary of State warns US of retaliation
As tensions escalated, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued his strongest warning yet to Washington, saying Iran would respond with overwhelming force if attacked.
“Unlike the restraint shown by Iran in June 2025, our powerful armed forces have no qualms about firing back with everything we have if we come under renewed attack,” Araghchi wrote in an opinion piece published by The Wall Street Journal. “This is not a threat, but a reality that I feel I have to state explicitly because as a diplomat and a veteran, I hate war.
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“All-out confrontation will certainly be fierce and stretch far, far beyond the fantasy timelines that Israel and its proxies are trying to sell to the White House. It will certainly engulf the wider region and impact ordinary people around the world.”
Araghchi’s comments coincided with his invitation to the World Economic Forum in Davos, which was canceled due to the killings.
Military movements increase regional anxiety
The remarks also came as a group of US aircraft carriers moved west from Asia towards the Middle East. Ship tracking data showed the USS Abraham Lincoln sailing through the Straits of Malacca into the Indian Ocean, placing it several days away from the region.
US military images released in recent days show F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets arriving in the Middle East and the relocation of HIMARS missile systems. While U.S. officials stopped short of confirming the new deployment, the moves follow a major U.S. military operation in the Caribbean that led to the seizure of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.
Kurdish group claims Iranian attack in Iraq
Separately, the Kurdistan National Army – the armed wing of the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) – claimed that Iran had launched an attack on one of its bases near Irbil in northern Iraq, killing one fighter. Cell phone footage released by the group showed the fire burning before dawn.
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Iran did not immediately acknowledge the strike, which, if confirmed, would mark Tehran’s first foreign military operation since the protests erupted. Iranian Kurdish groups have long operated from northern Iraq, an arrangement that has repeatedly strained relations between Tehran and Baghdad.
