India’s National Center for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), which houses India’s Tsunami Early Warning Center and provides forecast information to ocean states, is currently testing an advanced mesoscale prediction system linked to the Indian Ocean and Earth’s Atmosphere (IOLA), which is expected to help both the institute and the IMD for more accurate forecasts of rainfall, inland severe weather and coastal hazards.
“There is a demand from oil companies and the Coast Guard for higher resolution, high accuracy forecasts for their areas of interest. Once fully operational, the new system will allow us to produce continuous higher resolution forecasts,” said lead scientist Sudheer Joseph.
The IOLA system aims to create a unified framework for simulating severe weather, including ocean currents and other small and large coastal phenomena. It incorporates advanced modeling and nesting techniques from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) currently in operation by the IMD, he explained.
Dr. Joseph leads the research team along with scientists from institutions such as NIT Rourkela, IIT Bhubaneswar, Atlantic Oceanographic and Metrological Laboratory, University of Texas at Austin (USA) and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
The proposed system will be unique in its ability to generate site-specific ocean forecasts using high-resolution atmospheric forcing for ocean models, satellite data, coastal platforms such as Argo floats. “It can simulate extreme weather systems, including systems beyond mere storms, using nested models with a resolution of 1.2 km. This greatly improves the ability to predict precipitation, ocean currents and accurate ocean states,” said Dr. Joseph.
He highlighted the vulnerability of the Indian coast to tropical cyclones, monsoon rainfall and coastal hazards, noting that storms and lightning alone account for nearly 350 deaths every monsoon. While existing global models cannot be tuned to accurately predict such localized events, the existing HWRF can only track one storm at a time, he said.
Coastal forecasts remain particularly challenging due to rapid changes in land-sea breezes, tidal waves, and bottom friction in shallow waters that affect ocean surface roughness. Dr. Joseph emphasized that the upcoming forecasting system is essential for the offshore industry. “Any sudden change in the direction or speed of the ocean current can drastically affect offshore drilling and offloading. Improved forecasts will help authorities plan mitigation measures, including stopping certain operations well in advance,” he said.
Expected to be operational after proper validation within a year, the IOLA system will also support detailed analysis of the Indian coast and enable highly accurate forecasts for Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands using high-resolution nests.
“We currently use low-resolution models that suit large countries like India with a long coastline. But for island nations like the Maldives, where the total size is about six kilometers smaller than one grid point, the high-resolution variability will be a big advantage,” he added.
Published – 07 March 2026 20:36 IST
