NEW DELHI: Conditions are turning favorable for the decisive southwest monsoon to advance into parts of southern Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 16, even as large parts of northwest, west and central India brace for intense heat conditions in the coming week, according to the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) update.
A well-defined low pressure area over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal is aiding the advance of the monsoon flow, while numerous cyclonic circulations in the upper air over north-central India and western disturbances over Jammu and adjoining areas are shaping the weather across the country, a meteorologist said on Wednesday.
The Southwest Monsoon typically reaches the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around the third week of May before proceeding to the Kerala coast. In 2025, the monsoon reached the Andamans on 13 May. In mainland India, it usually begins on June 1, which marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon season (June to September).
Meteorologists have predicted below-normal rainfall this monsoon season amid emerging El Nino conditions. The monsoon is vital to Indian agriculture, helping to irrigate farms and refill reservoirs.
The IMD said isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Northeast India during 14-19. May and over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe and southern interior Karnataka during 14-17 May.
Although southern states are likely to see relief from rain, it warned that heat wave to severe heat wave is expected to persist in northwest India, west India and parts of central India for several days in the week.
West Rajasthan is likely to witness heatwave conditions at many places, with severe heatwaves in isolated pockets during May 14-15. West Madhya Pradesh may also experience severe heat waves from May 14 to 17.
Heatwave is also forecast over isolated pockets over Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, East Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra during 14-19. May.
Warm overnight conditions are likely over parts of Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra, while Konkan and Goa may experience hot and humid conditions on May 14.
According to the IMD, maximum temperatures are expected to gradually rise by 4 to 6 degrees Celsius over northwest India during May 14 to 19, while temperatures in central and east India could rise by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius by May 17.
On May 12, maximum temperatures crossed 42 degrees Celsius in most parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Vidarbha, Marathwada and West Madhya Pradesh. Barmer recorded the country’s highest maximum temperature of 48.3 degrees Celsius.
