Has the fuel trade gone too far? Trump wants 4.8 million tons of diesel from Russia: Can Moscow fulfill what it promised? | Today’s news

President Donald Trump has announced that Russia will send up to 4.8 million tons of diesel to the United States, or about 36 million barrels, in an arrangement that flies in the face of the new sanctions law and Russia’s depleted fuel sector. Moscow’s refineries have been damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes, and its diesel exports have already fallen by almost half this year, leaving the question of where such volumes would come from.

Trump’s Russian diesel deal: How much fuel will the US get?

Trump made the announcement Friday on social media after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The call was expected to cover a suspected plague case in Russia. Instead, Trump said Russia would deliver more than 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, followed by another 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons “immediately thereafter.”

Read also | Russia-Ukraine ‘Energy Truce’: Trump

Another 3 million tons would then arrive “within a short period of time,” he wrote.

Quick answers to key questions

•5 QUESTIONS

Trump announced a total of up to 4.8 million tons, or about 35.8 million barrels. The quantity combines several planned shipments, including an initial delivery of more than 300,000 tonnes.

Delivery is uncertain. Russian diesel exports have averaged around 550,000 barrels a day since July, while attacks on refineries have reduced output and Moscow has curbed exports to protect domestic supplies.

Trump said more than 300,000 tons would be delivered immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons thereafter. He gave no exact timetable for the final 3 million tonnes.

The temporary license exempts Russian diesel supplies from US sanctions until April 2027 if the fuel is loaded onto tankers from Friday. The article says this is the first diesel license since February 2022 that extends beyond the standard 30-day window.

Analysts cited in the article say a significant drop in prices is unlikely. They argue that volumes are limited and that the diversion of Russian supplies could lead its existing buyers to look elsewhere for fuel.

Together, the tranches amount to 4.8 million tons. At a standard conversion of about 7.45 barrels of diesel per ton, that’s close to 35.8 million barrels.

Neither the U.S. nor the Russian government said who would pay for the fuel or when the later deliveries would begin.

Russian diesel exports in 2026: Can Moscow supply 4.8 million tons?

The numbers that matter most come from S&P Global, which said Russian diesel exports have averaged around 550,000 barrels a day since July. That’s down from about 1 million barrels a day in the first half of 2026.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says Russian diesel production has fallen by about 30%, a decline linked to Ukraine’s repeated attacks on refineries. Moscow has also curbed exports to protect domestic supplies, and Russian accounts have labeled curbs as a ban effective from July.

Read also | Trump-Putin Diesel Deal: Can US President Bypass Russia Sanctions Act?

Compared to these volumes, the main commitment looks demanding, although the tranches come at different times and should be read carefully:

• First tranche: About 300,000 tonnes equals about 2.2 million barrels, or about four days of exports at recent rates.
• November tranche: About 500,000 tons is roughly 3.7 million barrels. Spread over a 30-day month, that would be about 124,000 barrels a day, or nearly a quarter of recent export flows.
• Full commitment: At 550,000 barrels per day, the full 4.8 million tons would equal about 65 days of current Russian exports. At a first-half pace of 1 million barrels per day, that would equate to about 36 days.

These are illustrative comparisons, not forecasts.

Trump has given no timetable for the final 3 million tons, so an exact share of export capacity cannot be calculated for the entire package.

Russia to lift diesel export restrictions as deal with Trump takes shape

The Russian side has indicated that it can move quickly.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the state-run Tass news agency that Russia “immediately begins lifting restrictions on diesel exports ahead of schedule. He said Moscow could begin deliveries to the US this month and that the domestic market would also be “fully supplied” with diesel.

Read also | Trump, Putin deal on diesel: What it means for the US and global markets

Putin’s statement released by the Kremlin said he and Trump paid “considerable attention to the prospects for resolving the Ukraine crisis” and also discussed “the situation around Iran and various aspects of bilateral relations.” Russia, he said, “confirmed its readiness to supply oil and oil products to the American and global markets.”

He added: “I am confident that this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy.”

Presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov would not say whether the US had made concessions in return or what, if anything, it had promised Russia.

US sanctions on Russian oil: How Trump’s new Treasury license works

Shortly after the announcement, the US Treasury issued a temporary license to supply Russian diesel to the global market. It is the latest license for Russian fuel since the Iran war began earlier this year.

It is also the first diesel to exceed the standard 30-day window since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022.

Under the license, U.S. sanctions will not apply until April 2027 on shipments of Russian diesel loaded onto tankers starting Friday. The expansions show how the Iran war has strengthened Moscow’s ability to profit from its energy exports.

Will Trump’s Russian diesel cut in the US before midterms?

The deal comes as fuel costs weigh on American voters ahead of the midterm elections. The national average for a gallon of diesel was $6.28 on Friday, according to AAA, after hitting a record high of $6.52 on Sept. 22. Futures immersed in the news.

In his post, Trump did not address sanctions or the war in Ukraine. He wrote: “Lower prices for Americans, especially our big farmers, ranchers and truckers, is my highest priority.

Read also | From fighting to high-risk evacuations, how robots are reshaping Ukraine’s war

Later, as he left the White House for a campaign rally, he said: “I want to thank President Putin. To be honest, there’s a huge amount of oil coming into our country, and it’s diesel, which is what we want. So thank you.”

Analysts told the AP that the deal is unlikely to significantly reduce diesel prices. Clayton Seigle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Russia would benefit from helping it offload summer diesel before winter.

Michael Lynch of the Energy Policy Research Foundation told the AP that U.S. imports would divert supplies from existing Russian customers, forcing them to look for alternatives and leaving prices largely unchanged.