Gianni Infantino survives the threat of leaving FIFA, but a power struggle for control begins

The battle to oust Gianni Infantino from FIFA may be almost over just weeks after his opponents thought he would dethrone the president of world football’s governing body, but the war over how much power he can wield may be just beginning.

Senior figures in world football increasingly see the crisis sparked by Infantino’s abandoned private investment plan moving away from the question of succession and towards a battle over the terms of his next presidency.

One outcome could be a governance compromise that would see Infantino stay in office but relinquish some power.

The other option is a prolonged “hot-cold war” in which clubs, confederations, player representatives and national associations repeatedly challenge FIFA over competitions, money and control of the international calendar.

“What’s clear now… is that he’s not going anywhere,” one world football executive told Reuters. “The hot-cold war is a very real problem for FIFA and for world football.”

A veteran international sports executive who has spent decades working with governing bodies offered a similar assessment, saying Infantino was “hanging on” but questioned how FIFA could function if many of the most powerful countries and institutions remained against him.

“There would be a civil war in the state administration that I don’t remember before in a sports body,” the chief executive said. “Unprecedented.”

This possible scenario of a prolonged and potentially damaging Cold War in world football was independently confirmed to Reuters by two other senior football officials.

The prospect points to a potentially paradoxical outcome to the crisis that threatened Infantino’s position at its peak: he could survive politically while presiding over a governing body where some of football’s biggest stakeholders are trying to limit what he can actually do.

“Will he become a lame duck?” asked the veteran executive.

TRUST STILL ARMED

There is no sign that Infantino’s attempt to draw a line across the crisis this week has mended the rift.

In a letter to the FIFA Council and the presidents of all 211 member associations, Infantino suggested that the Council consider commissioning an independent external review of FIFA’s governance framework for major strategic initiatives.

He also proposed consultations with confederations, associations and other stakeholders to strengthen decision-making and said he remains fully committed to FIFA’s leadership.

Several European federations quickly rejected the move, and UEFA president Aleksander Čeferin issued a scathing assessment on Wednesday.

“The project that broke the unity of world football can be cancelled, but the trust it broke has not returned,” Ceferin said in a video speech at the Portuguese football summit.

“Confidence in our sport rests on three pillars: unity, transparency and governance that serves the many, not the few.”

“Football is not for sale,” he added.

Čeferin did not name Infantino, but his remarks were a clear reference to a proposal to sell a 20% stake in FIFA’s commercial rights, including those linked to the World Cup, to private investors.

The project was canceled in July after opposition from European football’s governing body UEFA, the Asian Football Confederation and North American confederation CONCACAF.

ABRASION

For the 56-year-old Swiss-Italian Infantino, that leaves one path to a less confrontational settlement, a reform fundamental enough to convince his opponents that power within FIFA has indeed shifted.

A senior world football official said one possible outcome could be the creation of a new body or structure that weakens the president’s authority.

Infantino’s governance proposals were the “bare minimum” needed to give him room to stay in office, the chief executive said, adding that the question was whether he would adopt meaningful changes.

How far any compromise could go would depend on “how much Infantino is willing to concede” and how much his opponents were willing to fight to take them, the world football executive said.

There is historical irony in such a result.

The reforms introduced after the fall of former FIFA boss Sepp Blatter were intended to partially reduce the power concentrated in the presidency.

Still, senior figures now see another battle over how much authority the FIFA president should have.

If there is no settlement, the alternative could be acrimonious rather than spectacular.

The world football executive said clubs could fight with FIFA over the Club World Cup, financial distribution and player releases; player representatives could challenge the calendar; national associations could hinder initiatives; and major confederations could fight attempts to expand or reshape FIFA competitions.

“Maybe it looks like we’re down to two options now,” the executive said.

“First, a compromise where Gianni gives up some of his power and new bodies are created, or second, a permanent hot-cold war where all parties involved fight every issue.”

This could include an expanded World Cup, bigger or more frequent Club World Cups and commercial distribution decisions, the chief executive said.

The result might not be a formal break with FIFA. Instead, opponents could make any major initiative more difficult to implement.

The veteran sports executive said the challenge went to the heart of how global governing bodies operate.

“The importance of unity. To keep these behemoth sports organizations together, they are not political parties,” the executive said. “This will be new territory.

INFANTINO REBUILDS

There is another reason why the focus is shifting to living with Infantino rather than replacing him: his position appears to have strengthened since the crisis first erupted.

The president of the national association, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, believes Infantino’s opponents missed their best opportunity when opposition was at its height and is now rebuilding support ahead of March elections.

The FIFA president has a number of opportunities to meet national association leaders at tournaments, congresses and confederation events in the coming months, including several meetings in Africa.

The association’s president expects Infantino to use the meetings to maintain support among football leaders until FIFA’s presidential election in March 2027.

The political importance of smaller associations was also highlighted by a proposal by Ceferino and CONCACAF president Victor Montagliani that FIFA distribute at least $10 million from its reserves to each of its 211 member associations during the next financial cycle.

For many associations heavily dependent on FIFA funding, such sums could be transformational.

If Infantino is re-elected, the association’s president believes that some of the federations that opposed him may eventually become less hostile, concluding that there is little to be gained from four years of permanent confrontation.

This possibility means that a “Cold War” is not inevitable.

– The end