In the high-stakes scene of Indian politics, few figures capture the emotional rollercoaster of an election night quite like Pradeep Gupta. The chairman and managing director of Axis My India has become the face of Indian psephology – not just for his data but also for his raw, unfiltered reactions to it.
After 2024 when he cried on national television, trends in the 2026 assembly elections brought a new viral moment: The Dance of Redemption.
2024: The day the data broke
During the 2024 Lok Sabha election results, Gupta became a trending topic for a reason no pollster wants. His agency predicted a massive “400 paar” landslide for the NDA (361-401 seats). When the actual numbers came in that showed the incumbent government was short of a solo majority, the pressure came to a head.
Live on India Today, surrounded by anchors and analysts, Gupta broke down. It was a moment of rare vulnerability in an industry often defined by stoic overconfidence. While some scoffed at the “miss”, many saw a man deeply weighed down by the weight of his own precision and the 27 years of reputation he had built up.
Who is Pradeep Gupta?
Gupta is no stranger to the limelight. An engineer by training and a data intelligence expert by trade, he turned Axis My India into a household name. Its methodology—built on massive, personal sample sizes—is so different that it was cited as a Harvard Business School case study.
Author of How India Votes and What It Means, Gupta’s career has been dedicated to decoding the “silent voter”. However, as told by NDTV
when it comes to polls in West Bengal, the silence can be deafening.
“About 60-70 percent of people were tight-lipped. They weren’t even ready to say yes or no,” Gupta noted, stressing the immense difficulty of predicting outcomes in a polarized climate.
2026: The mood turns festive
Fast forward to the 2026 assembly elections and the atmosphere at the Axis My India office has turned from somber to festive. As the early trends for Tamil Nadu began to match his agency’s projections, the “crying pollster” was replaced by a man on the move.
Videos of Gupta dancing quickly replaced clips from 2024 of him sobbing, signaling a return to form for the agency.
“You see, the Axis My India method is talking to people face to face. And when we tried to talk after the first phase, about 60-70 per cent people had their lips taped shut. They were not even ready to say yes or no,” Gupta told NDTV.
While most pollsters played it safe and predicted a DMK encore, Axis My India bet big on the ‘Vijay wave’. Agency Pradeep Gupta stood alone in predicting that TVK would crash the party, potentially capturing 100 seats and turning the debutant actor into the ultimate king in the 234-member assembly.
