Explained: How the Caspian Sea Could Link Ukraine and Iran Wars | Today’s news
As two major wars continue to rage, a new flashpoint appears to be emerging between the parties on opposite sides of the conflicts, potentially uniting them in unexpected ways.
Flash-point? The Caspian Sea, the largest inland body of water in the world.
Last week, Iran summoned Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires after Kiev said it had carried out an attack in the Caspian Sea targeting a vessel linked to Iran. Tehran said the attack killed one sailor.
The incident highlighted the growing strategic importance of the Caspian Sea to both Iran and Russia, which have deepened their ties in the wake of sweeping Western sanctions.
Ukraine revealed last week that it had struck two vessels in the Caspian Sea, saying they had left Iran and were bound for a Russian port.
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In a post on X, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the targets included “ships involved in transporting military cargo from Iran, as well as a warship” later identified as a Russian missile ship.
However, Iran disputed Kiev’s account. It said the stricken vessel was carrying a cargo of iron, not military equipment, and was sailing from the Russian port of Astrakhan to the Iranian port of Anzali, rather than the other way around.
An Iranian foreign ministry spokesman warned on Monday: “Ukraine’s dangerous adventurism will certainly not go unanswered,” raising concerns that the two separate conflicts could increasingly overlap if attacks on vessels in the Caspian Sea continue.
Why is the Caspian Sea important to Iran and Russia?
Bordering Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the Caspian Sea has become a vital trade and logistics corridor for both Moscow and Tehran as they seek alternatives to routes hit by Western sanctions.
For Iran, the route has become even more important due to the restriction of its access through the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
The Caspian Sea can help Iran by allowing it to pursue a “diversified trade strategy, especially if Iran supports trade with Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, China by rail and indirectly with Eastern Europe,” according to Bijan Khajehpour, managing partner of Vienna-based Eurasian Nexus Partners, who spoke to CNN on the matter.
It is “rather a strategic complement than a replacement for Iran’s existing maritime access through southern waters,” he added.
Read also | Russia accuses Ukraine of killing at least 12 civilians in occupied Zaporozhye
It was the Caspian Sea that was used to supply Moscow with Iran’s Shahed attack drones during the early days of its war with Ukraine.
A 2024 CNN report revealed that there was reason to believe that a Russian cargo was carrying ballistic missiles from Iran to be used in the war in Ukraine, and that the ship had been spotted in a Russian port in the Caspian Sea.
US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett told CNN at the time that “any transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would represent a dramatic escalation of support for Iran.” And now that Ukraine is directly attacking an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, the chances of Kiev and Tehran coming face to face have just increased.
