El Nino ties record intensity: What 3.07°C Pacific warming means for weather from Central America to Indonesia | Today’s news
The strengthening El Nino weather pattern matches the highest intensity recorded on the widely used measure, with its effects already being felt in parts of Central America and Indonesia.
El Nino is reaching record levels
Zeke Hausfather, a climatologist at Berkeley Earth and co-author of the UN climate change reports, said the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific reached 3.07°C. This matches the level recorded during the 2015-2016 El Nino.
Hausfather said September is also likely to become the month with the highest anomaly on record unless there is an unexpected change in the last week.
A woman washes clothes in a river near the village of Los Piches in San Lorenzo, Valle department, Honduras, September 4, 2026. Animals are dying amid the worst drought in living memory for many Central Americans dealing with the brutal effects of severe El Nino weather. (Photo: Orlando SIERRA / AFP)(AFP)
Its data, published through the Climate Brink panel, uses sea surface temperature data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) collected via satellites and buoys.
How is El Nino measured?
The data is based on daily Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and compared to a 30-year average.
Read also | The government is prioritizing farm spending as El Nino risks clouding rural outlooks
NOAA also introduced a newer measurement known as the Relative Ocean Nino Index, or RONI. Instead of looking only at warming in the Nino 3.4 region, RONI compares it to warming in the wider tropical belt.
This adjustment is to take into account the wider warming of the world’s oceans caused by climate change.
Using RONI, the current El Nino remains below the previous record, although scientists expect it could eventually surpass it.
El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, a natural climate cycle in the tropical Pacific. It develops when the trade winds, which typically move from east to west, weaken, allowing warm water that normally collects in the western Pacific to move eastward and rise to the surface.
Read also | Wall Street ends sharply higher as AI optimism reignites and Treasury yields retreat
When unusually warm surface temperatures persist for several months, they can alter precipitation, storms, and atmospheric circulation far across the Pacific.
The effects of El Nino are already being felt
The resulting changes in weather can bring warmer and drier conditions to some regions while creating cooler and wetter conditions elsewhere.
Climate change may also amplify some of the effects associated with El Nino. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which can make El Nino-related precipitation heavier. Increased drying may also worsen drought conditions in regions that already receive less precipitation.
Scientists remain divided on whether climate change directly causes El Nino events to become stronger. However, a recent study using coral skeletons found what researchers described as a “striking intensification” of El Nino events over the past 40 years compared to pre-industrial times.
Maria Juana Nunez washes her clothes in a small stream whose flow has decreased significantly due to lack of rainfall, in the village of El Matazano, San Simon, Morazan department, El Salvador, September 10, 2026. The stream, which used to carry a much larger stream, is now one of the few options for the community’s residents to wash their clothes when water is scarce. The animals are dying amid the worst drought in living memory for many Central Americans who are dealing with the brutal effects of strong El Nino weather. (Photo: Marvin RECINOS / AFP)(AFP)
The current event is already affecting communities and ecosystems.
In Central America, drought associated with El Nino contributed to animal deaths and crop damage. The water shortage is also creating problems for the Panama Canal, a key route for international shipping.
About 5% of global trade passes through the canal, which relies on reservoir water to operate locks that raise and lower vessels. The authorities therefore had to reduce the number of ships able to pass through the waterway.
Read also | Strongest El Nino since 1950 on the horizon: How will it impact India?
In Indonesia, meanwhile, drought associated with El Nino contributed to conditions that fueled wildfires across the archipelago.
