The likelihood that the world will witness an El Niño this year has been significantly reduced, according to reports on Thursday which claimed that El Niño is appearing in the Pacific Ocean even faster than expected.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in its May 14 report that there is an 82 percent chance that El Niño will arrive between May and July and a 96 percent chance that it will develop by December.
However, the agency predicted only a 37 percent chance of being in its highest categorization, the “very strong” category.
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There is an 82% chance of El Niño developing between May and July, with a 96% chance of it happening by December. Meteorologists are very confident about his arrival.
Although there is high confidence in the occurrence of El Niño, its maximum strength remains uncertain and no categorization exceeds a 37% chance. Some researchers call it a “super El Niño” when the ocean temperature rises 2°C or more above the baseline.
A strong El Niño could lead to a warmer global climate, increased risk of extreme weather such as heat waves and heavy rainfall, drier conditions in some regions, and more hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific.
El Niño could affect the upcoming sugar season, which could lead to lower production. This concern, along with high domestic consumption, led India to ban sugar exports to ensure domestic availability and control prices.
India banned sugar exports to prevent a sharp rise in domestic prices, maintain sufficient buffer stocks and ensure adequate supplies for the second consecutive year. Concerns about the potential impact of El Niño on production also contributed to this decision.
Read also | El Niño and the Monsoon Threat: What the Data Shows
The probability of El Niño is increasing
According to National Weather ServiceEl Niño is likely to emerge early (82% probability May-July 2026) and continue through the 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere winter (96% probability December 2026-February 2027). However, the release indicates great uncertainty about its maximum strength.
He says that while confidence in the occurrence of El Niño has increased since last month, there is still considerable uncertainty about the maximum strength of El Niño, “without categorizing strength beyond a 37% chance.”
El Niño events often peak towards the end of the year, with the maximum impact usually felt between November and February, says the UK’s MET office.
Read also | El Niño threatens monsoon in India
The strongest El Niño events on record feature significant ocean-atmosphere coupling during the summer, and it remains to be seen whether that will happen in 2026, the National Weather Service said in its latest update.
The statement added that stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only increase the likelihood of certain impacts.
What is El Niño
The World Meteorological Office (WMO) says El Niño is characterized by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts approximately nine to twelve months.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service, declares the beginning of an El Niño episode when the 3-month average sea surface temperature exceeds 0.5 degrees C in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific.
The influence of El Niño
El Niño events affect temperature and precipitation patterns in different regions and typically warm the global climate. So 2024 was the warmest year on record due to a combination of a strong El Niño in 2023-2024 and human-induced climate change caused by greenhouse gases, the WMO explained.
Each El Niño event is unique in terms of its development, spatial pattern, and impacts.
According to CNN, the strength of El Niño is measured by how high water temperatures rise above average in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and usually peaks in the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Read also | El Niño threat over… rain deficit to reduce by July-end: KJ Ramesh
What is a “Super El Niño”?
The latest projections suggest that this year’s El Niño could become a strong event, potentially comparable to some of the most impressive episodes of recent decades, the so-called United Kingdom Met Office he said.
Many have called this phenomenon a “super El Niño”. However, the WMO does not use the term “super El Niño” and says it is “not part of the standardized operational classifications”.
The term “super El Niño” is not even officially recognized by the UK’s Met Office, but “confidence is growing that this event could sit at the upper end of the historical range”.
“Super” El Niño is not a term we subscribe to, but it does underscore the fact that it is likely to be a significant event. Scientists are telling us that this could be the strongest El Niño event this century so far, on a par with the remarkable El Niño event of 1998,” said Grahame Madge, Chief Spokesman and Climate Science Communicator for the UK Metmunic Office.
How Strong Could ‘Super El Niño’ Be?
According to the WMO, forecasts indicate a “near-global prevalence of above-normal land surface temperatures” over the coming three-month period, along with regional variations in precipitation patterns.
Some scientists use the term super El Niño to describe when ocean temperatures rise 2ºC or more above the baseline. The last El Niño to reach this mark happened in 2015-16, read a paper published in the journal Nature.
Meanwhile, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts estimated in a May 1 report that these ocean waters could reach 3ºC above average by November.
CNN reported that while this El Niño is not reaching “super” status, it is likely to still be strong. Stronger El Niños typically pack a bigger punch when it comes to affecting global weather conditions, but the impacts don’t always pan out as expected, the report added.
The “Super El Niño” effect.
If predictions of one of the strongest El Niños this year come true, “it could bring floods, droughts and other weather extremes to many parts of the globe, as well as potentially increase temperatures in 2027 to record highs,” Nature said.
what to expect WMO says:
2. Increased chances of extreme weather such as heat waves and heavy rainfall
3. Increased precipitation in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia
4. Drier conditions over Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia
5. During the boreal summer, an increase in hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific, but less in the Atlantic basin
How confident are meteorologists that this “super” El Niño is on the horizon?
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that El Nino is likely to develop soon, with an 82 percent chance between May and July 2026. It gave nothing significant about how strong it would be.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said on Tuesday that there was a 90 percent chance of El Nino occurring by summer.
Meanwhile, Kyle Tapley, Enterprise Sales Executive at Vaisala Xweather’s WeatherDesk, told Reuters: “A strong El Niño is expected to develop this year and could reach that level by the end of the summer.”
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of climate prediction at the WMO, said: “…there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further strengthening in the coming months…Models suggest it could be a strong event – but the so-called spring predictability barrier challenges the certainty of predictions at this time of year…”
