‘Crop and food prices face heat’: El Nino sets India on course for driest monsoon in 17 years | Today’s news
India is on track for its driest monsoon in 17 years, with strengthening El Nino conditions limiting rainfall and raising concerns about crop yields and food price pressures, Bloomberg reported.
Cumulative rainfall during the June-September monsoon season is currently 15% below the long-term average, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). If the deficit persists, the season would be the weakest since 2009, when rainfall was 18% below normal. The IMD predicted a 10% shortfall for the season in May.
The precipitation deficit will remain in double digits
A potential tropical cyclone could develop in the Bay of Bengal in the last week of September, bringing some relief to eastern and northeastern India, according to Christian Werner, CEO of Australian consultancy Global Weather Climate Analytics, Bloomberg reported.
But Werner expects the storm to have little impact on the overall national rainfall deficit, which he estimates will remain between 13% and 16%.
Forecasts by academics and weather experts on Lancaster University’s CRUCIAL forecasting platform also point to a weak monsoon. The platform gives a 68% chance the season will end with precipitation 10% to 20% below normal, according to its founder, planetary scientist Mark Roulston.
Why monsoon is critical for India
The monsoon is critical to India’s agricultural economy, with hundreds of millions of farmers relying on seasonal rainfall to irrigate their fields. India is among the world’s largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton, while the monsoon from June to September accounts for most of the country’s annual rainfall.
Prolonged deficit rainfall could affect both the current harvest and the next crop cycle, which could increase pressures on food prices. Food inflation rose for the seventh month in a row to 5.95% in August, the highest level this year, while plantings of rice, sugarcane and maize lagged behind last year’s levels.
According to Yuvika Singhal, economist at QuantEco, every 1 percentage point drop in rainfall from normal levels typically increases food inflation by around 25 basis points.
The government has already taken steps to boost supplies amid weaker rainfall and rising prices. These include allowing duty-free imports of sugar and selling onions at subsidized prices in some states to reduce food costs.
