Could Bolsonaro’s election win give Trump his biggest prize yet in Latin America? How big is Brazil’s economy? Explained | Today’s news
Brazil’s presidential election could have ramifications far beyond the country’s domestic politics. An Oct. 25 victory by Flavio Bolsonaro would put Latin America’s biggest economy under a government more closely aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump, giving Washington a potential new partner in a region where security, trade and competition with China are increasingly intertwined.
The stakes are unusually high because Brazil isn’t just another country headed to Washington. It accounts for about 31% of Latin America’s gross domestic product, making it the region’s largest economy, and plays an influential role in BRICS, Mercosur and the wider Global South.
Why Brazil matters more than another Trump administration
Trump has built relationships with governments across Latin America that vary widely in their political outlook and their proximity to Washington.
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Argentina’s Javier Milei has emerged as one of Trump’s most outspoken regional partners. Nayib Bukele of El Salvador worked closely with Washington on migration and security, while Daniel Noboa of Ecuador expanded security cooperation with the US.
Chile’s José Antonio Kast also joined the Trump-backed Shield of the Americas. Colombia, Honduras, Peru and Bolivia have also moved closer to Washington to varying degrees.
But Brazil is in a different category because of the size of its economy and diplomatic weight.
Brazil is also a major trading partner of China and a major member of BRICS. Its relationship with Beijing gives Brazil an importance in the competition between the US and China that smaller Latin American economies do not have.
Trump is building a broader strategy for Latin America
The emerging US strategy in the Latin American region goes beyond elections and political alliances. The Shield of the Americas pits the U.S. against Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Trinidad and Tobago.
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Its agenda includes security cooperation, economic ties and multilateral coordination. The framework also addresses areas such as critical minerals supply chains, investment screening and digital infrastructure.
This gives Washington multiple points of cooperation with governments across the region, from fighting organized crime to securing strategic resources.
What would a Bolsonaro victory mean for Washington?
If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Brazil could become one of the most significant additions to America’s expanding network of regional partnerships.
The potential shift would involve more than political symbolism. Brazil’s size gives it influence over regional trade, critical resources, energy, food supplies and diplomatic blocs that matter outside the Western Hemisphere.
It could also affect the balance between Washington and Beijing in a region where China has become an important economic partner.
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For the US, therefore, closer relations with Brazil could open up opportunities in trade, critical minerals, technology and security.
In the case of Brazil, the relationship would include its own calculations. The country has historically sought room to maintain relations with competing global powers, including the US and China, rather than fully align with one party.
How big is Brazil’s economy and what resources does it control?
Brazil’s economic scale sets it apart from most countries that have recently approached Washington. Its GDP was about $2.28 trillion in 2025, according to World Bank data.
That was larger than Mexico’s $1.83 trillion economy and more than three times the size of Argentina’s $683 billion economy. Brazil’s GDP was also roughly six times that of Colombia and more than seven times that of Chile.
This economic weight comes with an unusually broad resource base. Brazil is a major producer and exporter of soybeans, beef and iron ore, while its offshore oil industry has made it an important energy producer. Its mineral wealth is particularly significant.
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In 2024, Brazil accounted for 93% of global niobium production and about 17% of global iron ore production, according to the US Geological Survey. It was also among the world’s leading producers of bauxite, graphite, lithium, manganese and tantalum. US Geological Survey
A country’s importance to global supply chains goes beyond its mines. Brazil is one of the world’s leading agricultural producers, with vast areas devoted to soy and other crops, and its offshore oil reserves are another source of strategic value.
Then there’s Amazon. Brazil contains roughly two-thirds of the Amazon rainforest, giving it an unusual role in global discussions about climate policy, carbon markets, agriculture and environmental protection.
The numbers help explain why Brazil would represent something else to Washington. Mexico and Brazil are Latin America’s two economic giants, but Brazil combines a $2.28 trillion domestic economy with agricultural exports, oil, iron ore and critical minerals, while maintaining deep trade ties with China.
This means that a shift in Brazil’s foreign policy would have implications not only for regional politics, but also for energy, food, minerals, trade and the US-China competition for strategic supply chains.
A Bolsonaro victory would therefore bring into Washington’s orbit a country whose economic and resource base is considerably larger than that of most governments that have recently aligned themselves more closely with the US.
