Lula vs Bolsonaro: Will Brazil Join 7 Latin American Nations in Shifting to the Right? Impact on US relations, China explained | Today’s news
As Brazil goes to the polls on Sunday (October 3), will the country join the “shift to the right” that has taken place in Latin America in recent years?
Brazil’s election has been seen as “deeply polarizing” as voters choose between two starkly different visions for the country put forward by left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.
Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, are the frontrunners in Sunday’s presidential election in Brazil.
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Lula promotes a leftist agenda aimed at reducing inequality, while Flavio Bolsonaro advocates conservative policies bringing Brazil closer to the US and prioritizing economic growth.
The election presents stark contrasts between Lula’s progressive platform and Bolsonaro’s right-wing agenda, reflecting wider societal divisions on issues such as governance and economic policy.
A Lula victory would likely preserve Brazil’s relationship with China, while a Bolsonaro victory could bring Brazil closer to US interests, especially under the influence of the Trump administration.
Supporters say Lula’s extensive political experience and connections with poorer voters allow him to tackle Brazil’s crisis, but critics raise concerns about his age and past controversies.
Several Latin American nations, including Colombia and Argentina, have recently elected right-wing leaders, reflecting a broader regional trend driven by economic and security interests.
The polls showed that Lula and Flavio are neck and neck. Reuters reported that a second leg on October 25 was likely.
Will Brazil Join Latin America’s Rightward Shift?
In Brazil, a Lula victory is expected to keep the country alongside Mexico as the main left-wing stronghold in the region, while a victory by Flavio Bolsonaro would see the country join a right-wing wave.
The battle in Brazil comes as Latin America has swung sharply to the right in recent years.
Right-wing candidates and conservative allies of US President Donald Trump have won seven major presidential elections in Latin America in the past few years, most of them since Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.
Here’s a look at Latin American countries that recently elected conservative presidents:
1. Colombia
Trump-backed Abelardo de la Espriella secured a narrow victory in Colombia’s June presidential election. A lawyer and business owner, Espriella has pledged to shrink the size of the state, expand the tax base, lower corporate taxes and restore oil production.
De la Espriella is nicknamed “The Tiger”. His election marked a pivotal moment for Colombia, which has been ruled for the past four years by a former member of a rebel group who has criticized the Trump administration’s immigration and anti-drug policies, the Associated Press reported.
2. Peru
In Peru, conservative Keiko Fujimori secured victory in a razor-thin June race. Moody’s ratings agency said Fujimori’s government would maintain policy continuity, boost investor confidence and boost economic growth.
Fujimori, a pro-business conservative politician who campaigned on a tough-on-crime platform, is the daughter of the late former president Alberto Fujimori, whose government defeated the violent extremist Shining Path group in the 1990s but also took an authoritarian turn.
She took office in July. According to the AP, she has promised to build four new prisons, including a mega-prison modeled after El Salvador’s CECOT facility, militarize Peru’s border to curb drug trafficking and deport migrants working in the country without legal residency.
3. Argentina
Javier Milei, nicknamed “The Lion”, won Argentina’s presidential election in November 2023, promising to cut government spending and tackle the South American nation’s decades-long inflation problem.
Economist and TV commentator Milei reportedly stopped the National Central Bank from printing money to finance the government deficit and cut government spending by firing civil servants and halting investment in public infrastructure programs, while cutting subsidies for utility bills.
4. Ecuador
Daniel Noboa won the election in Ecuador with 56 percent of the vote and was re-elected for a four-year term in April 2025.
Noboa, a member of one of Ecuador’s wealthiest families, has given the military a more prominent role in providing security in coastal cities overrun by drug gangs fighting for control of ports and drug-trafficking routes. However, the strategy did not significantly reduce the number of murders.
Under her watch, Ecuador’s military began conducting joint operations against drug traffickers with the U.S. Noboa also pushed for the reopening of a U.S. military base in Ecuador, but the proposal was overturned in a referendum last year.
5. Honduras
Nasry Asfura narrowly won the presidential election in Honduras in November, beating his nearest rival by less than a percentage point.
Asfura, a real estate investor and former mayor of the National Party, belongs to the same party as former president Juan Orlando Hernández, who was pardoned by Trump for a drug-trafficking conviction.
Asfura was backed by the US president, who threatened to cut off aid to the small Central American country if Asfura was not elected.
6. Chile
In Chile’s December 2025 presidential election, conservative and devout Catholic José Antonio Kast won, defeating the progressive government that had been in power for the previous four years.
In his campaigns, Kast has capitalized on fears of rising crime in Chile and said he would expel migrants from countries such as Venezuela and Haiti who were working in Chile without a residence permit.
One of his first steps after taking office was to widen a ditch along Chile’s borders with Peru and Bolivia in an effort, his government says, to stem the drug trade and migration.
7. Costa Rica
Laura Fernández won Costa Rica’s February election with 48 percent of the vote, beating her nearest rival by 15 percentage points and surpassing the 40 percent needed to avoid a runoff.
She was economy minister under conservative former president Rodrigo Chaves.
Brazil’s 2026 elections: right versus left – impact on foreign policy
The winner of the Brazilian election will determine Brazil’s foreign policy.
Flavio Bolsonaro’s father and former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro is an ally of US President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, Lula, who at 80 is one of the world’s oldest heads of state, is running for his seventh presidential election and has strengthened Brazil’s ties with China.
In particular, Lula accused the Trump administration of using tariffs and other means to interfere in Brazilian affairs. Bolsonaro has portrayed Trump as an ally and is expected to strengthen ties with Washington if elected.
The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on Brazilian products and sanctions on judges and other officials.
If the leftist Lula wins, Washington will likely continue to resort to threats and targeted tariffs to limit relations with China, Regiane Bressan, a professor of international relations at the Federal University of Sao Paulo, told AFP.
The US is Brazil’s second largest trading partner after China.
A Flavio Bolsonaro presidency would be more aligned with Washington, “at least rhetorically,” Bressan said.
“Latin Americans prefer China to America”
The latest Latinobarómetro survey, conducted in 17 countries and published exclusively by The Economist, showed that Latinos’ views of the United States have worsened since Trump took office.
The share with a favorable opinion fell from 73 percent in 2024 to 63 percent, the report published on September 30, 2026 claimed.
The poll showed that for the first time in the historically pro-American region, Latin Americans see Chinese influence in a better light than American influence: 65% said it was positive, compared to 57% in the United States.
“This reflects Mr. Trump’s aggressive stance toward a region he believes his country should dominate,” the report added.
Will this mean the return of Lula’s left in the 2026 Brazilian elections? The next president will be known as soon as the results of the ongoing polls are published.
The Electoral Court (TSE) will start publishing the results at 17:00 Brazilian time on Sunday, October 4, 2026, as soon as the polling stations close. A runoff between the two is expected on October 25 if neither gets 50 percent of the vote. Sunday’s results will offer the first real measure of support for the candidates outside the polls.
