Confidence deficit in India-Bangladesh ties

“An influential segment within the BNP believes that as a gesture of goodwill towards the new government, India should have reversed some of the retaliatory actions it had taken during the interim government under Muhammad Yunus”. | Photo credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

Mmore than a hundred days have passed since Tarique Rahman’s government took over in Bangladesh. However, despite the initial expectations of his leadership, Indo-Bangladesh relations remained more or less the same as during the difficult months of the caretaker government.

Action, not rhetoric

India reached out twice before Mr. Rahman became Bangladesh’s prime minister. The first contact was made by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, who visited Dhaka on December 31, 2025, to condole the death of Mr Rahman’s mother, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. The second time was through Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, who carried Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s letter of invitation, and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, who attended Mr. Rahman’s swearing-in ceremony on February 17. But sources in the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) say such gestures alone are insufficient. An influential segment within the BNP believes that as a gesture of goodwill towards the new government, India should have reversed some of the retaliatory actions it had taken during the rule of the caretaker government under Muhammad Yunus. These steps included the resumption of transshipment of goods from Bangladesh, the full restoration of visa services including business and medical visas, and an end to restrictive market access for Bangladeshi goods. None of these measures have been implemented so far, according to Dhaka. They argue that by not reversing these decisions, India has provided no ex ante incentives to Mr. Rahman, who will have to ally with Jamaat-e-Islami and several anti-India student groups before normalizing relations with India.

Veteran BNP leaders have attempted to mend ties by creating greater public acceptance of the position that ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India will not delay ties, a departure from the hardline stance taken by the caretaker government. Here too, Dhaka feels that such attempts have not found recognition from the Indian side.

As evidence, they point to the aggressive use of “illegal immigration” in official communications from Delhi following the Bharatiya Janata Party’s victory in West Bengal and Assam. Bangladeshi diplomats pointed out that Dhaka expected less rhetoric on sensitive issues such as illegal immigration and more focus on issues such as the renewal of visas and the renewal of the 1996 Ganges Water Treaty.

Dhaka sent Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman to Delhi on April 7-8 for a short visit to test the waters, where he met National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Mr Jaishankar. But election campaigning in Assam and West Bengal around Bangladesh-related issues and a flurry of talks by exiled Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina showed that Mr Rahman’s BNP, despite winning an overwhelming majority in Bangladesh, had failed to make an impact in India. While a senior diplomat in Dhaka said Bangladesh had been assured that the language around the state election would not reflect New Delhi’s foreign policy, the foreign ministry’s strident stance on illegal immigration had left the Dhaka secretariat feeling “betrayed”.

Sensing that the window to restore ties with India is not opening as expected, Mr. Rahman is reportedly in the final stages of considering visits to Malaysia and China, which are likely to take place in the last week of June.

The Bangladesh Dilemma

However, this turn towards China cannot obscure the fact that it is Bangladesh’s responsibility, as well as India’s, to mend bilateral relations. Bangladesh’s ties with India remain severed due to the 2024 insurgency and subsequent interim rule, while its relations with China, the US and other players have prospered since August 2024. Further, a pragmatic assessment shows that without continued assurance from India on the major Padma (Ganga) river, Bangladesh’s other plans beyond the Ni2026 river are not expected to proceed smoothly. the renewal of the 30-year-old Ganga Treaty will put the Ganga-Kobadak Irrigation Project in a difficult situation, affecting large parts of western and central Bangladesh. The lack of predictable water supplies will affect the upcoming planting season and hurt Bangladesh’s economy, which is already dealing with the crippling effects of an energy crisis due to the US-Israeli war against Iran.

The combined effect of these devastating forces will increase pressure on Tarique Rahman’s government, which is already under fire for its inept handling of the country’s worst measles outbreak, which has claimed the lives of at least 600 infants. Critics have targeted the government for its weak handling of the health crisis, as well as rising cases of sexual violence, a symptom of a breakdown in law and order in a country still recovering from protests in August 2024. Opponents, including Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, which has been mobilizing on the ground despite the ban, will be strengthened if Gangaman does not renew Mr Raha’s December deal. 31, 2026.

Such substantive factors on the ground call for pragmatism in both capitals as the problems will soon overwhelm Bangladesh and return it to instability, which again is not in India’s immediate or long-term interest.

Published – 09 Jun 2026 0:33 IST