AIADMK is likely to face another crisis after its vote share declines

AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami. | Photo credit: E. LAKSHMI NARAYANAN

With yet another electoral setback in the Madurantakam and Dharapuram Reserved Assembly by-elections, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is reeling towards another challenging phase, perhaps the worst in its 54-year history.

It is possible that around AIADMK’s Foundation Day (October 17), critics of party general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami will launch another salvo against him. They will point out how the organization, once a dominant force in state politics, is weakening day by day. There has been talk in political circles for some time now that the AIADMK General Council, when it is expected to convene in a few months, will witness a major clash between Mr. Palaniswami’s supporters and his detractors.

On the face of it, the AIADMK’s performance was not that bad as the party got almost a quarter of the votes – say around 25% – in the two constituencies. In Madurantakam, the Dravidian major was handicapped by the neutral stance of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which was his ally in the assembly elections five months ago. As a result, she did not gain an advantage that she would otherwise have secured. This could be seen from the fact that during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, when the AIADMK’s position was as good as it is now, the party’s vote share was 37%, while this time it fell to 25.61%.

When the party retained the seat in the April-May elections, its score was 32.58%, which was less than the party secured in 2024, despite the alliance with the PMK. However, the presence of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) on the scene earlier this year changed the contours of the electoral battle and turned it into a fierce triangular contest.

In Dharapuram, the erosion of AIADMK’s vote share was quite noticeable as it fell from 32.37% in 2024 and 40% in 2026 (April-May) to about 25% now. The party won the mandate seven times. TVK, which had a vote share of about 29% five months ago, appears to have grown at the expense of the AIADMK as the ruling party moved closer to 37%.

Former minister ‘Pollachi’ V Jayaraman, who worked for the party in the constituency, says the results showed that people are yet to emerge from the “web of illusions” of the ruling TVK. He expects to realize the reality sooner rather than later and hopes that his side will bounce back under such circumstances.

Asked whether the ruling TVK will step up its efforts to win over AIADMK cadre, party deputy general secretary M. Anandan says his party need not do so. “AIADMK volunteers are joining us and will continue to join us in future,” he said.

Asked about the impact of the dissidents’ non-cooperation on the by-election results, Mr. Jayaraman says, “One thing is certain: I am like many others who will follow the path shown by Mr. Palaniswami.” At the same time, there is a perception that the rebel camp has no leader to match Mr. Palaniswami. Needless to say, the coming weeks will witness several developments for the AIADMK.

Published – 9 Oct 2026 23:17 IST