AfD predicts historic victory in German state elections, but path to power remains unclear | Today’s news

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was expected to score a historic victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, which could make it the strongest political force in the region and increase pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government.

Pre-election polls and early vote counts reported by German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF put the AfD at about 44%, more than double the roughly 21% it won in the previous state election five years ago.

But it remained unclear whether the party would secure an outright majority in the state legislature — an outcome that would allow it to govern on its own and potentially break Germany’s long-standing political “firewall” against cooperation with the far right.

A historic result for the AfD

The predicted result would be the biggest electoral breakthrough in the AfD’s 13-year history.

Ulrich Siegmund, the party’s 35-year-old candidate for governor, called the performance historic.

“We made history,” Siegmund told ARD, adding that voters had sent a message that “things like this cannot continue.”

He also directly attacked Merz with the argument that the chancellor helped the AfD campaign.

“Friedrich Merz was a very good fighter for us in this election campaign,” Siegmund said, adding that every day that Merz remained in the chancellery was “one too many”.

AfD far ahead of Merz’s CDU

The result represents a major setback for Merz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has governed Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years.

The CDU was expected to receive around 18.5%, roughly half of its previous support.

The Left Party, the Social Democratic Party and the Greens were predicted to get around 9%.

The new BSW party led by Sahra Wagenknecht hovered around the 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament.

The final distribution of mandates will decide whether the AfD can achieve an absolute majority.

Why would it matter to the AfD majority

Germany has 16 federal states, known as Länder, which have significant responsibilities, including education and aspects of security and policing.

An AfD-led state government would therefore give the party direct control over important areas of public policy.

It would also have huge symbolic significance.

Modern Germany has never had a far-right or right-wing populist party leading a national government, a state government, or the administration of major cities.

A victory in Saxony-Anhalt would therefore be a major breakthrough for a party that has been kept out of government by other mainstream parties.

The AfD’s state branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization by Germany’s domestic intelligence service. The party strongly denies such allegations.

The political firewall remains

Even if the AfD falls short of an outright majority, it is expected to have a difficult path to forming a government.

Mainstream German parties have maintained a policy of refusing to cooperate with the AfD, often described as a “firewall” or Brandmauer.

CDU representatives signaled after the screenings that they had no intention of leaving this position.

Franziska Hoppermann, the CDU’s national general secretary, called the result “very difficult” for the party, but rejected the idea of ​​working with the AfD.

This leaves the possibility that the AfD could win the largest share of the vote but still not be able to form a government.

The political agenda of the AfD

Siegmund was intensively devoted to migration.

Among his priorities are deporting people he describes as illegal in Germany, tougher deportation policies and limiting what he calls incentives for migrants to come to Germany and use the country’s social security system.

He also proposed starting the lengthy process of withdrawing Saxony-Anhalt from regional public broadcasting, citing concerns about what he described as misinformation.

The party also wants fundamental changes in education and family policy.

The AfD supports allowing home education, which is generally not allowed in Germany. He also wants schools to stop officially flying the rainbow flag and ensure that the German national flag is flown instead.

AfD and the Russian-Ukrainian war

The party opposes the use of German taxpayers’ money to support Ukraine and wants Germany to push for an end to sanctions against Russia.

However, these foreign policy issues are largely outside the purview of individual state governments and are primarily determined at the federal level.

What does the result mean for Friedrich Merz?

The election is also a test of Merz’s popularity.

Germany’s national government has faced voter discontent over concerns about the country’s weak economy, immigration and the government’s ability to deliver on its promises.

AfD’s strong performance suggests frustration with the federal government is benefiting the far right.

AfD national co-chair Alice Weidel called the predicted result “sensational” and said voters had given the party a clear mandate to govern.

She said the AfD’s “hand is outstretched” to those who want to improve Saxony-Anhalt and move Germany forward.