Southwest Monsoon delayed, likely to set over Kerala around June 4: IMD | Today’s news
A new forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday suggests that the monsoon will arrive later this year, as opposed to its earlier prediction that it may arrive early.
According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon normally sets over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. It marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon season (June-September).
Read also | The government lowered its fertilizer demand estimate after the IMD downgraded its monsoon forecast
In his latest press releaseThe IMD said, “The Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala around June 4, 2026.”
The IMD said conditions are favorable for the advance of Southwest Monsoon to some other parts of Southwest and Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, some other parts of Southwest, Central West, Central East and Northeast Bay of Bengal and remaining parts of Southeast Bay of Bengal around June 4.
Southwest Monsoon delayed, likely to set over Kerala around June 4(IMD)
Earlier on May 15, the Meteorological Department had claimed that the Southwest Monsoon may “set over Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ± 4 days”. However, this was delayed and the department said on 29 May that the induction could take place the following week.
Read also | Center plans monsoon pressure on capital markets, housing finance reforms
Expect below normal rainfall
The IMD said on May 29 that India could witness “below normal rainfall” overall during the monsoon season (June to September) in 2026. Citing data to support the forecast, it said: “…southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%.”
Its rainfall forecast for June states that average rainfall for the country as a whole during June 2026 is most likely to be below normal (<92% LPA).
LPA refers to the rainfall recorded in a particular area for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period of time, usually 30 to 50 years. If the monsoon season receives less than 90 per cent of the LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as ‘deficient’.
The statement added that the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be normal over northeast India and below normal over central and southern peninsular India and northwest India.
Read also | Is 2026 heading for its driest monsoon since 2015?
Blame El Nino?
One of the reasons for the below-normal rainfall could be the occurrence of El Niño conditions, which lead to less rainfall during the monsoon in the country.
In its May 29 press release, the IMD noted that neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are transitioning to El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific.
“The latest climate model predictions suggest that El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon,” it said.
Read also | IMD lowers Southwest Monsoon forecast to 90% of normal as El Nino risks increase
The IMD said El-Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June and moderate to strong in September.
The US National Weather Service said last month that El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through the 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere winter (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027). However, the release indicates great uncertainty about its maximum strength.
But the latest projections suggest this year’s El Niño could become a strong event, potentially on par with some of the most impressive episodes in recent decades, the UK Met Office said.
Read also | The US wants to ban Chinese high-tech cars, but they are already here
While many have referred to the phenomenon as a “super El Niño”, the World Meteorological Organization says it does not use the term “super El Niño” and that it is “not part of the standardized operational classifications”.
Why is it important to understand the changing behavior of the monsoon?
The IMD says that understanding the changing behavior of the Indian monsoon is critical for agriculture, water management, disaster preparedness and climate adaptation.
Sharing a research paper on the southwest monsoon from MAUSAM (formerly the Indian Journal of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics), the department said, “This study re-examines and redefines the ‘normal’ onset and withdrawal dates of the monsoon using updated long-term climatological data and modern statistical analysis.”
He notes that even small shifts in monsoon timing can significantly affect crop planting, water resources, urban planning and preparedness for extreme weather. “Updated monsoon normals help improve forecast reliability and climate resilience,” he says.
