The new Delhi, 22 June (PTI) of any other escalation of the ongoing wars between Iran and Israel will have wider consequences for Indian trade in Western Asian countries, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, say experts.
They said the war had already begun to influence the export of India to Iran and Israel.
The US attacked three places in Iran soon on Sunday and intervened into the Israeli War aimed at destroying the nuclear program of the country in risky gambits to weaken a long -time enemy that raised concerns about a wider regional conflict when Tehran accused Washington of the commencement of a “dangerous war”.
“Now we have great problems because of this war. It will have a cascading effect on Indian trade in Western Asian countries,” said the exporter and founder in Mumbai and chairman of the founders of Technocraft Industries India Sharad Kumar Saraf.
SARAF said his company also holds consignment of both countries. Technocraft Industries produces closure of drum, nylon and plastic plugs, closure of pockets and clamps.
“The cascading effect of this war will be a cascade effect,” he added.
Another exporter said that the community of Indian traders were already rushing under the impact of Israel Hamas and involved by the Houthis attack supported by Yemen on ship ships in the Red Sea. For this reason, the shipping line from India dealt with shipments from Cape of Good Hope and surrounded the African continent.
Now, because of the Irania -zrael War, another route of key trading lines -Hormuz Strait -is affected.
“This route will hit the movement of oil tankers. I feel that oil tankers will find new routes, but it will push oil prices. It will have the consequences of inflation, because oil prices are the mother of all prices,” Saraf said.
The Global Trade Trade Research Initiative Think (GTRI) initiative said that wider regional escalation could endanger the much larger trade of India with the wider West Asian region, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, where Indian exports of $ 8.6 billion are $ 33.1.
“Any disruption of lanes, port access, or financial systems in this corridor would seriously affect Indian trading flows, transport and insurance costs, and would introduce new risks of the supply chain for Indian companies,” said founder Gtri Ajay Srivastava.
Indian exports to Iran cost $ 1.24 billion at FY20, with key items including Basmati rice ($ 753.2 million), bananas ($ 53.2 million), soy food ($ 70.6 million), Bengal Gram ($ 27.9 million) and tea (25.5 million). Imports cost $ 441.8 billion last fiscal.
With Israel, Indian exports were $ 2.1 billion and $ 1.6 billion in $ 2024-25.
He said that the ongoing American-Israeli strikes on Iran and the threat of a wider conflict could significantly disrupt this business.
Payment channels already tense by US sanctions may face further blockage, while increased transport risks in the Gulf of Persian could increase insurance costs and delays.
“Exports such as rice, bananas and tea are particularly vulnerable. The prolonged conflict could suppress Iranian demand and press Indian exporters, especially in the agricultural sector,” Srivastava said.
Gtri said that a key problem was to disturb the Hormuz Strait, through which about 60-65 percent of Indian brutal imports of transit.
“Any blockade or military escalation in this vital naval corridor would seriously affect India’s energy safety, increase oil prices, and inflation pressures at home,” he added.
India has a deep historical, cultural and economic links with Iran, once the main supplier of oil, and the Iranian port of Chabahar is perceived as a strategic gate to Afghanistan and Central Asia and provides major connectivity in circumventing Pakistan.
But India also maintains robust relations with the US, Israel and the Arab states in the Gulf, each now directly or indirectly involved in the developing confrontation, Srivastava said.
Indian oil and half of its imports of LNG are undergoing the Strait of Hormuz, which threatened Iran by closing. This narrow waterway, only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, processes almost one fifth of global oil trade and is essential for India, which depends on imports for more than 80 % of its energy needs.
The main route for oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and SAE serves as the main route for oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and SAE as the main route for oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Many liquefied supplies of natural gas (LNG), especially from Qatar, also undergo the strait.
According to an economic Think based in Dilli, any closure or military disruption in the Hormuz Strait would sharply increase oil prices, transport costs and premiums, causing inflation, pushing on rupees and complications of Indian fiscal control.
The current conflict, which began by attacking Israel 7 October 2023, brought the movement of the load through the Red Sea route to stop due to the attacks of the insurgents on commercial transport.
Last year, the situation around the Strait of Bab-El-Mandeb, the key transport route connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean with the Indian Ocean, escalated because of the Houth Militants based on Yemen.
Approximately 80 percent of Indian trade in Europe is going through the Red Sea, and this journey also shows a substantial US trade. Both of these geography represent 34 % of the country’s total exports.
The fear of the Red Sea is vital for 30 percent of global container operation and 12 % of the world trade.
Based on the impact on the Customs War, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has already stated that global trade in 2025 will close by 0.2 % compared to an earlier screening of 2.7 % of expansion.
Indian total exports increased by 6 percent year-on-year to $ 825 billion in the years 2024-25. This year it is expected to exceed $ 900 billion.
Indian exports, which captured a two -month -old growing trend, decreased by 2.17 % year -on -year to $ 38.73 billion in May due to a decline in shipping goods.
(Tagstotranslate) Iran
