Lula’s comeback in Brazilian elections: 4 factors that helped him defeat Flavio Bolsonaro and secure a fourth term | Today’s news

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva bounced back to win a fourth term in office after losing in the first round, winning 51.8% of the vote against right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro. His victory followed an intense campaign that combined youth mobilization, a revamped social media strategy, opposition to the Bolsonaro family and a range of popular economic and social measures.

The 80-year-old incumbent described his first-round campaign as the most “disorganized” in a decade. Ahead of the second leg, he changed his digital reach, seeking support from young influencer politicians and encouraging supporters to take their campaign online and into the streets.

Here are four factors that may have contributed to Lula’s election victory.

1. Young voters will take to the streets

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Lula’s campaign mobilized young voters, expanded its reach on social media, built the election around opposition to Bolsonaro’s return, and emphasized social and workers’ rights measures. Convincing more voters to participate in the second round also contributed.

The “Lula’s Army” WhatsApp channel grew from 60,000 followers to nearly 11 million in three weeks. It provided supporters with messages and tasks to share online, helped spread campaign content and supported voter mobilization.

Students and young people organized rallies in major cities and supported Lula’s social policies and promises to defend minority rights. Political scientist Eduardo Grin called their mobilization essential for the campaign.

Lula’s supporters presented the decisive match as a choice between his agenda and the return of the Bolsonaro family. Concerns about democracy, social rights and the former government’s record have helped give Bolsonaro’s opponents a common reason to mobilize.

The campaign highlighted a reform guaranteeing workers two rest days a week, welfare payments rescheduled to come before the match and debt relief for small businesses. Lula also promised an increase in Bolsa Família payments and widespread debt relief for struggling households.

Youth mobilization emerged as a key feature of Lula’s election campaign after his failure in the first round. Students and young people organized rallies in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Belo Horizonte, chanting slogans such as “Bolsonaro never again” and expressing support for Lula’s social policies and promises to defend minority rights.

“The mobilization of young people was essential,” Eduardo Grin, a political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), told AFP.

Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) was able to reconnect with younger voters, Grin said. The president also compared the mobilization to the 1984 movement that demanded elections during Brazil’s military dictatorship.

Street demonstrations gave the campaign a visible citizen presence at a critical stage of Brazil’s elections. They also helped rally supporters around concerns about social rights and the possibility of the Bolsonaro family returning to power.

2. WhatsApp channel grows from 60,000 to almost 11 million followers

Lula’s campaign also sought to counter the powerful online influence of the political right by overhauling its social media strategy.

The incumbent hired young influential politicians, bought his first mobile phone and branded himself the “selfie king”. Meanwhile, his supporters spent hours sharing political content online and talking to voters in person.

The scale of the digital push was reflected in the growth of the “Lula’s Army” WhatsApp channel. According to the report, it went from 60,000 followers to nearly 11 million in just three weeks.

Publicist Taiza Mendonca, 36, told AFP the effort had taken considerable time outside of her regular work hours. Even older supporters, including her “60-year-old aunts,” have learned to use hashtags, she said.

FGV’s Oliver Stuenkel also described the sustained activity of left-wing supporters who spent hours posting content and engaging voters offline.

The campaign’s digital reach helped supporters spread messages and mobilize voters outside of rallies and traditional campaign events.

3. Opposition to the Bolsonaro family

Another factor was the effort to frame the election as a choice between Lula’s agenda and the Bolsonaro family’s return to power.

Flavio Bolsonaro (45) emerged as a right-wing candidate with the support of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. During the campaign, Flavio called his father his “compass” and promised to secure his release if elected.

Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election, according to a supplied report.

Critics of the former president have pointed to rising hunger, his administration’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, violence against minorities and environmental policies they say are in denial of climate change.

Grin argued that street mobilization and social media activity helped create fears about the return of the Bolsonaro family and the implications for democracy and social rights.

The strategy gave Lula’s supporters a common message to rally around. Rather than focusing exclusively on past records, the campaign also sought to highlight the risks associated with Bolsonaro’s return.

4. Social measures and workers’ rights

Lula’s campaign was also accompanied by a number of measures aimed at workers, welfare recipients and small entrepreneurs.

Congress passed a reform guaranteeing workers two rest days a week, a key campaign pledge. The government has also changed the timetable for October welfare payments so that recipients receive them before the match, rather than after.

The moves came alongside debt relief measures for small businesses and other initiatives described in the report as popular with voters.

Defending the timing of the benefits, Lula said during a pre-election interview: “I will not stop providing the benefits that I can provide just because there are elections.”

The measures allowed the incumbent to highlight policies with direct impacts on household finances, working conditions and small businesses in the lead-up to the vote.

While the timing may have helped keep these issues in the campaign spotlight, the available information does not determine the independent electoral impact of each measure.

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