Why Arab parties could hold the key to forming a government in Israel's next election

Arab political parties could hold the key to forming a government in Israel’s upcoming election, with opinion polls suggesting that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the Jewish opposition can secure the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

A poll of polls published by The Jerusalem Post puts the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett level with Netanyahu’s bloc on 54 seats, with Arab parties expected to win 8 seats.

A separate poll by Israel’s Channel 12 also projects 54 seats for the opposition bloc, 49 for Netanyahu’s coalition and eight for Arab parties.

Meanwhile, a poll published by Maariv gives both Netanyahu’s bloc and the Jewish opposition 52 seats each, with Arab parties projected to win 12 seats. Yoaz Hendel’s reserve side are expected to secure the other four places without committing to either camp.

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats, and the government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers.

If the main blocs do not have a majority, Arab parties could become crucial in determining who forms the next government.

Why the Arab parties could maintain the balance of power

Projections suggest that support from Arab lawmakers could help the Jewish opposition gather a parliamentary majority to replace Netanyahu.

However, the prospect of Arab parties formally joining the government remains politically contentious.

Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List said his party would use all available means to replace Netanyahu, while ruling out formally joining the opposition alliance led by Eisenkot, Lapid and Bennett.

“After the election, we will impose our conditions on any political constellation in Israel. We have full freedom of action, without restrictions, to replace the Netanyahu government, and we will use all the tools at our disposal,” Jabareen said, according to The Times of Israel.

His remarks suggest that Arab parties may be willing to support an alternative government without necessarily becoming formal members of a governing coalition.

However, most Jewish opposition party leaders have refused to work with Arab lawmakers to form an alternative government, complicating the path to a parliamentary majority.

What the polls say about seat arithmetic

The Maariv survey offers a more detailed breakdown of the projected seating distribution.

Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 52 seats, including 20 for his Likud party, eight for Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power, seven each for United Torah Judaism and Shas, six for Becalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism and four for Ofer Winter’s Amcha Israel.

The Jewish opposition is expected to win 52 seats. Yashar Gadi Eisenkot’s party is forecast to secure 21 seats, followed by Naftali Bennett’s Together party with 13 and Yair Golan’s Democrats and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu with nine seats.

Arab parties are expected to win 12 seats, with the Jabareen-led Joint List securing seven and the Mansour Abbas United Arab List winning five. Hendel’s reserve party is expected to take four seats, but has not indicated which bloc it would support.

A repeat of Israel’s 2021 political experiment?

Israel has previously seen the Arab party play a key role in forming a government.

In 2021, Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List joined the coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, helping to end Netanyahu’s 12-year term as prime minister. The arrangement was significant because the Arab party became a formal participant in Israel’s governing coalition.

However, the coalition was ideologically diverse and faced disagreements over contentious policy issues. It eventually collapsed, paving the way for elections in 2022. Netanyahu’s Likud emerged as the largest party, and he returned to power with the support of far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.

The majority of Israelis are against the entry of Arab parties into the government

Arab parties, despite their potential parliamentary influence, face considerable public resistance to formal participation in the next government, Anadolu Agency reports.

The Maariv poll found that 59% of respondents opposed an Arab party entering the government after the election, while 36% supported the idea and 5% were undecided.

The poll found a mixed reaction to the participation of ultra-Orthodox Haredi parties: 53% supported their inclusion in the next government, 41% opposed and 6% undecided.

Netanyahu faces a contest shaped by the war in Gaza

The upcoming election is the first since the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, which sparked the Gaza war and added to the wider regional conflict.

The Maariv poll also found that 46% of respondents preferred former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot to Netanyahu as prime minister in a head-to-head fight, compared to 40% who preferred Netanyahu. Fourteen percent did not give a clear answer.

When respondents were asked to choose between several candidates, Netanyahu won 38%, followed by Eisenkot with 24% and Bennett with 14%. The other candidates received less than 10% each.

Israelis do not directly elect their prime minister. The position goes to a leader who can form a government supported by a parliamentary majority.