Brazil elections: Can Flavio Bolsonaro challenge Lula in a neck-and-neck race? What the latest surveys show

Brazil’s presidential election enters its final phase, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro leading by three percentage points in the latest first-round poll, according to Bloomberg. The potential outflow between the two remains statistically identical, the report said.

The latest AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg, conducted between September 23 and 28 among 5,005 people, gives Lula 45% and Bolsonaro 42% in the first round. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Brazil is scheduled for a first round on October 4, with a second round on October 25 if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes.

Lula, Bolsonaro, neck and neck in the decisive match

The AtlasIntel poll puts Bolsonaro at 47.7% and Lula at 47.6% in a simulated runoff, putting both essentially within the poll’s margin of error.

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Reuters described the result as a statistical tie, with a margin of 0.1 points too small to establish a meaningful lead.

The latest poll marks only a marginal shift from the previous AtlasIntel poll, which had Lula at 47.7% and Bolsonaro at 47.4% in the simulated runoff. This survey from 17-22 September covered 5,015 respondents and had the same margin of error of ±1 percentage point.

The AtlasIntel series consistently shows a close fight between the two politicians.

Survey from 23-28 September is the latest in a series of national polls released by AtlasIntel, following polls on September 23, September 17, September 10 and August 31. Each used a sample of roughly 5,000 respondents and carried a margin of error of ±1 percentage point.

Bolsonaro is emerging as Lula’s main challenger

Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, entered the presidential race as the leading candidate of Brazil’s Bolsonaro right after his father was banned from running.

His campaign sought to capitalize on discontent with Lula’s government and broader anti-establishment sentiment, according to The Hill. The election also comes amid scrutiny over the Banco Master scandal, which has drawn the attention of political figures and institutions across Brazil, the report added.

Bolsonaro has denied wrongdoing but faces an investigation into alleged financial crimes linked to his relationship with banker Daniel Vorcar.

The economy remains central to the campaign

Economic conditions remain another key topic of the election.

Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in the three months to August, according to the country’s statistics agency IBGE. It was the lowest rate for the period since 2012, when the current methodology came into effect. At the same time, informal employment remained significant, representing about 37.5% of the workforce.

Lula’s government has also sought to address household financial pressures with measures such as adding expanded benefits under its social security program and plans related to delinquent consumer debt, according to Reuters.

Voting in the first round will decide whether either candidate secures enough support to win.

If neither candidate reaches the required threshold, the competition will move to a second round on October 25.