IPL 2026 Playoff Qualifying Scenarios: With 8 matches to go, RCB officially qualifies; DC’s odds rose to 19.5% — probabilities explained for each team

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RCB qualifies for playoffs; DC’s chances are increasing. (Photo credit: IPL)

With 8 matches left in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. RCB have qualified and GT can just miss out on a clean run, while SRH would have to do really badly from here to avoid the playoffs. CSK and RR have a slightly less chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points, albeit jointly. The odds of PBKS are roughly one in three. KKR and DC improved their chances with wins over the weekend but remain behind the rest.There are now 256 possible combinations of outcomes, so none of the seven remaining in the race are certain yet. Let’s look at the probabilities:

  • RCB are now certain to qualify and finish at least tied for 1st place in terms of points. Their worst case scenario is a three-way tie for first place with GT and SRH.

  • GT is assured of a top four finish in points, but could still miss out on the playoffs. That could happen thanks to a four-way tie for second place with SRH, CSK and RR on 16 points. Their clean sheet is currently the best among these four teams.

  • SRH’s chance of finishing in the top four on points is 87.9% and they have a 50% chance of finishing in the top two.

  • CSK’s chances of being in the top four on points are now 44.9% and they have a 25% chance of finishing tied for second with one to three other teams.

  • RR’s chances of finishing in the top four on points are at 44.5% after Sunday’s loss, and they have a 9.4% chance of finishing in the top two with a tie with two or three other teams.

  • With Sunday’s loss, PBKS’s chance of finishing in the top four on points dropped to 35.2%, and they can no longer hope to even match one of the top two spots.

  • DC’s chances of making the last four individually or collectively are now 19.5% after Sunday’s win, but even they can no longer compete for the top two slots.

  • KKR’s chances of making the last four individually or collectively are now 18%, but like PBKS and DC, they can no longer compete for the top two slots.

Do you think ČSK qualifies for the playoffs?

How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 256 possible combinations of results left, 8 matches left. For each team, we looked at how many of them finished in the top four, either individually or in a tie. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team in the top two either individually or together. For example, RCB will finish 1st in points in all 256 possible combinations of match results, some of them as sole leaders and others as joint leaders.