Trump’s war in Iran is approaching 7 months. Here’s why his UN speech matters to oil prices and markets | Today’s news
US President Donald Trump is set to address the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday as his war with Iran approaches the seven-month mark, firmly focusing on the impact of the Iran war on oil prices, shipping routes and global markets.
With Brent crude hovering around $100 a barrel and the Strait of Hormuz still facing disruption, investors will be watching Trump’s comments for signs of a shift toward diplomacy.
Iran war puts oil markets in the spotlight
The Iran war has disrupted energy flows in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key issue for global oil markets. Although waterway transport has improved, flows remain below pre-war levels.
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Trump’s U.N. speech could affect oil prices by signaling potential shifts toward diplomacy in the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has raised geopolitical risks and affected global oil supplies.
The Strait of Hormuz is vital as it holds about 20% of the world’s oil supply, so any disruption there is a serious concern for global energy markets.
If shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz improve significantly, this could lead to increased oil supplies and potentially lower prices as market fears of disruption ease.
The Iran war amplifies risks to global energy markets by disrupting oil flows, keeping prices volatile and raising shipping costs due to geopolitical tensions.
Investors should watch Trump’s meeting with Pezeshkian as it could signal a move toward negotiations, which would affect expectations for oil supplies and market stability.
Brent crude settled at $100.34 a barrel on Monday before rising above $102 in early trading on Tuesday as markets weighed the prospect of US-Iran talks.
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Trump has said the military campaign is aimed at dealing with Iran’s nuclear threat. His administration also kept pressure on Tehran through military action, sanctions, and curbs on Iranian oil.
The market’s reaction increasingly depended on whether the conflict would move to negotiations. Iran and the US have exchanged signals about possible diplomacy, with Trump saying he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in New York.
The Strait of Hormuz remains critical
The Strait of Hormuz is central to the market outlook as it plays a role in transporting oil and gas from producers in the Persian Gulf. Improved traffic in recent days has eased some supply concerns, but any renewed disruption could quickly put upward pressure on oil prices.
Saudi Arabia is also working to restore alternative export routes after the attacks disrupted its east-west gas pipeline. Reuters reported that the kingdom is seeing a partial recovery in shipments, another factor being watched by oil traders.
Prospects for more supplies and diplomatic progress have already weighed on prices. Brent fell 3.4% to $100.34 a barrel on Monday as traders weighed the possibility of progress at the UN General Assembly.
Trump’s UN speech and Iranian diplomacy
Trump’s appearance at the UN General Assembly comes as Qatar and other mediators seek to bridge what Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari described as a “deep trust deficit” between Washington and Tehran.
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“This will end at the negotiating table,” al-Ansari said. “Either we sign the deal now or we sign it in 10 months. The only difference is the number of deaths and the destruction we see.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said Trump is open to meeting with Pezeshkian while the two leaders are in New York.
“This is a president who will mostly meet with anybody because he believes that dealing with people is important if you want to solve problems,” Rubio said on NBC’s “Today” show. “It doesn’t mean you end up agreeing with them, but it’s important.”
Any move toward negotiations could affect expectations for oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. A renewed escalation, on the other hand, would keep geopolitical risk elevated and could contribute to volatility in oil markets.
Another Trump UN meeting
Outside of Iran, Trump is expected to meet with leaders and senior officials from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to discuss the war and recent Iranian-backed attacks on Saudi Arabia.
He is also scheduled to meet with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez.
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Ukraine will also feature on Trump’s diplomatic agenda, with a meeting planned with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the Russia-Ukraine war continues.
The US president is also expected to take part in discussions surrounding a new agreement with Denmark and Greenland that would expand the US military presence in Greenland while keeping the territory under Danish control.
What the markets will be watching
For investors, the key signals from Trump’s appearance at the UN are likely to center on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of negotiations. Oil prices have already shown sensitivity to signs of improving supply and potential US-Iranian diplomacy.
With Brent still hovering around the $100 mark, developments at the UN this week could provide another major signal for energy markets, which are already adjusting to months of disruption from the Iran conflict.
